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Forecast

November 16, 2021/report

November 16, 2021

A weak long wave trough of low pressure moved through overnight.  It was not potent enough to lift the fog and low clouds out of the Sacramento and San  Joaquin Valleys, but there was enough lift for somewhat better visibility this morning.  All locations between Bakersfield and Sacramento are reporting a visibility of between .25 and .50 of a mile.  Typically, when the lifting action takes place, it gives a better chance of clearing in  the afternoon.  Most locations yesterday observed no sunshine whatsoever.  Trying to outguess the fog and low clouds is always a dicey challenge during the fog season.  If we do see some hazy sunshine  this afternoon, in all likelihood it will reform as ground fog tonight.

 

A ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to become reestablished later today through Friday.  The  warm air inversion is still there, but not as strong.  The freezing level this morning over Oakland was 10,900 feet. Compare that with nearly 14,000 feet over the past couple of days.

 

The next system of note will move through central California Saturday and Saturday night.  This system is a bit stronger but still will not have enough energy to produce precipitation.  The only exception will be the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite north where light showers will be possible.

 

Models after Saturday tend to diverge. By that, I mean models are giving different solutions for a particular weather pattern. One thing does appear, likely, however is that no precipitation will occur through at least the middle of next week.  A closed low will develop off the southern California coast. It will just meander out there for several days.  There’s no reason to believe rain will fall from now through the end of the month.

 

Forecast: Fog and low clouds this morning with patchy drizzle possible. Mostly clear to partly cloudy this afternoon. Widespread dense fog tonight and Wednesday morning. Clearing in some areas Wednesday afternoon.  Fog and low overcast Wednesday night through Friday night with some afternoon clearing.  Variable cloudiness Saturday and Saturday night with patchy low clouds and fog.  Mostly clear Sunday through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:  Highs this afternoon where the low overcast remains solidi will run in the upper 50s and low 60s.  In areas with afternoon sunshine, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  lows tonight will generally range in the mid to upper 40s but near 50 in Kern County.  Highs Wednesday will range in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.  Lows will be in the low to mid 40s. Highs Thursday will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.    

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

43/70

Saturday

Patchy fog/mostly cloudy

46/67

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

43/65

 

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

41/67

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

45/67

 

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  November 21 through November 27  Models show the storm track moving further north into the Pacific Northwest, meaning central California will only have a minimal chance of precipitation during this period.  Temperatures will largely be governed by fog and low clouds, but will generally be above average.

 

November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme.  If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.

 

November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California.  Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Friday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost:  Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year.  Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/100%  Porterville, 100%/80%.  Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .31, Parlier .23, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .41, Delano .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 60, Arvin, .47, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 61, Delano 55. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 65/42.  Record Temperatures: 81/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  210  -13. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.61. Monthly  .30. -.10

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +44.  Month to date  .01 -.22

Average Temperature this month: 58.3, +2.3. Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 ,  Arvin,  0, Belridge,  0  ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 14 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0

Sunrise/Sunset:HOD:  6:39/4:48/10:10

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  60 /  50 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  61 /  52 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  64 /  53 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  58 /  54 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  58 /  53 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  65 /  53 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  59 /  54 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  54 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   338       T     0     1.28    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   312       T     0     0.98    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    1.99   178    0.48    43     1.12    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    78    0.06     7     0.83    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   164    0.11    11     0.96    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   165    0.09    12     0.75     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   186    0.39    76     0.51     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   159       T     0     0.49     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   197    0.30    27     1.11    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    1.58   170    0.26    28     0.93    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40   136    0.24    23     1.03    13.32

 

Next report: November 17