November 20, 2021
There is quite a bit of variability in conditions in this early morning hour. Bakersfield was reporting a low overcast based at 3,100 feet, Porterville was overcast at 400 feet, Visalia was reporting ground fog with a visibility of ½ mile, Lemoore was overcast at 800 feet, and Madera was reporting a broken layer of clouds at just 400 feet.
A very weak ripple of low pressure is currently moving through central California. With weaker pressure aloft, the overcast is near 4,000 feet. A number of locations may not see any sunshine this afternoon. However, the air mass is mild, so most locations will make it into the 60s this afternoon, which is near average.
In the big picture, nothing but dry weather shows up on models. Upper level high pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California while a cut off low develops off the central and southern California coast. This weak feature will just meander out there until Tuesday when it will be picked up by another weak trough with no possibility of precipitation.
By Thursday of next week, a big ridge will be developing off shore, extending inland over California. Theoretically, this would mean well above average temperatures, but the main challenge will again be the extent of low clouds and fog. This type of pattern generally results in stellar weather along the coast and in the mountains and fog and low overcast in the valley. It may clear into hazy sunshine some days. Other days, it may not. Such is winter in the valley.
Forecast: Fog and/or low overcast through Monday with partial afternoon clearing. Fog and low overcast will continue Monday night through Saturday with local afternoon clearing. Thanksgiving Day appears to be typical for the valley with widespread fog and low clouds mornings and a chance of afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/43/63/41/63 | Reedley 63/41/63/41/64 | Dinuba 61/41/62/40/64 |
| Porterville 64/41/64/40/65 | Lindsay 63/41/61/41/64 | Delano 63/42/64/42/64 |
| Bakersfield 62/49/64/44/67 | Taft 60/50/65/50/65 | Arvin 63/47/65/47/65 |
| Lamont 62/44/67/44/65 | Pixley 63/42/64/42/65 | Tulare 61/42/62/42/63 |
| Woodlake 62/40/63/41/63 | Hanford 62/42/63/42/64 | Orosi 62/41/62/41/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 42/65 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 41/66 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 36/61
|
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 36/64 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 27 through December 3: This model continues to indicate a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the western part of the country and off shore, driving the storm track well to the north of central California. Temperatures above the valley floor will remain above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by fog and low clouds.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Monday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Expect all locations to be above freezing through at least Tuesday of next week. A dry cold front will move through central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. It’s unclear at this time whether there will be enough mixing to temporarily rid the valley of its fog. If the low cloud deck does mix out, widespread low to mid 30s will occur. If that overcast remains in place, all locations will remain above freezing.
There’s nothing on models at this time to suggest a particularly cold weather pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/91% Porterville, 100%/69%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .31, Parlier .19, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .24, Porterville .35, Delano .24. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 60, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 61, Delano 54. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 247 -26. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.50. Monthly .30. -.21
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +37. Month to date .01 -.29
Average Temperature this month: 57.7, +2.5. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 8 , Parlier, 21 , Arvin, 15, Belridge, 18 ,Shafter, 12 , Stratford, 35 , Delano, 21 , Porterville, 26`
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 6:43/4:46/10:04
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 70 / 54 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 292 0.09 6 1.48 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 271 0.10 9 1.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 159 1.08 86 1.26 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 68 0.16 17 0.96 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 147 0.28 26 1.07 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 149 0.13 16 0.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 164 0.39 67 0.58 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 147 T 0 0.53 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 170 0.37 29 1.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 118 0.25 21 1.19 13.32
Next report: November 21