November 21, 2021
The balloon sounding above Vandenberg AFB this morning indicated a northeast flow from the surface to above 30.000 feet. This is an ideal moderate Santa Ana wind configuration. Currently at Sandberg up at 4,100 feet, winds are out of the east at 26 mph, ,gusting to 41. The difference in pressure between Salt Lake City and LA is apparent. The altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is currently 30.56 while at LAX it’s 30.06. Along the Sierra Nevada, light easterly breezes are moving downslope. This is actually an ideal pattern for fog formation. As these winds blow over the top of the valley, they generally leave the lower 2,000 feet above the valley floor undisturbed. Infrared satellite imagery this morning shows widespread dense fog covering the valley from Madera to the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. As per usual, temperatures this afternoon will be determined by when fog burns off at your location. Best chance for clearing will be over Kern County and near the Sierra Nevada foothills. I can say with a high degree of confidence that dry weather will continue for the remainder of November as high pressure will remain over the eastern Pacific and much of the western 1/3 of the US. Some medium range models show the high breaking down the first week of December. It’s way too early to tell whether or not precipitation will occur then, but at least on paper, the typical blocking ridge pattern is absent.
Forecast: Widespread dense fog this morning with areas of afternoon clearing through Thanksgiving Day. Fog and low clouds will continue Thursday night through Sunday with areas of hazy afternoon sunshine.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/40/66/40/64 | Reedley 65/40/65/39/64 | Dinuba 63/40/64/39/64 |
| Porterville 68/39/66/38/65 | Lindsay 68/39/66/38/65 | Delano 63/41/66/41/65 |
| Bakersfield 69/45/70/47/68 | Taft 65/48/69/50/66 | Arvin 71/45/69/45/70 |
| Lamont 71/42/70/43/70 | Pixley 65/41/66/39/65 | Tulare 64/40/64/39/64 |
| Woodlake 65/39/66/39/65 | Hanford 65/40/65/41/65 | Orosi 66/39/66/38/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 36/66 |
Thanksgiving
AM fog/PM sun 34/61 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 39/66 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 40/68 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 40/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 4: This model points to the breakdown of the eastern Pacific high. Above average precipitation is indicated for the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This model pretty much gives a 50/50 chance of rain for central California. The flow aloft will be west or southwest, keeping temperatures above average.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: A weak trough of low pressure will move through but with no weather at midweek. The air mass behind this system is marginally colder. Fog conditions, generally where fog burns off, could result in temperatures dropping down into the low to mid 30s at some locations. For now, there is no model information indicating a significant frost or freeze event well into the first week of December.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/69% Porterville, 100%/69%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 20%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .28, Parlier .18, Arvin .41, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .32, Delano .23. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 60, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 59, Delano 54. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 260 -27. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.47. Monthly .30. -.24
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +36. Month to date .01 -.30
Average Temperature this month: 57.5, +2.5. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 8 , Parlier, 21 , Arvin, 15, Belridge, 18 ,Shafter, 12 , Stratford, 35 , Delano, 21 , Porterville, 26`
Sunrise. 6:44 Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 10;02
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 282 0.09 6 1.53 13.45
MODESTO T 3.06 262 0.10 9 1.17 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 155 1.08 84 1.29 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 66 0.16 16 0.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 143 0.28 25 1.10 10.99
HANFORD T 1.24 146 0.13 15 0.85 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 161 0.39 66 0.59 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 144 T 0 0.54 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 165 0.37 28 1.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 114 0.25 20 1.23 13.32
Next report: November 22