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  • April 19, 2024 April 19, 2024 Summary  Overall, a weak blanket of high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western US. The lone exception is a…
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Forecast

Thanksgiving Day/2021/report

That weak trough of low pressure that moved through with very little fanfare about 36 hours ago did leave a somewhat colder air mass in its wake. In some cases, the first frost of the season occurred overnight with widespread low to mid 30s in the rural areas. The coldest I could find in the citrus belts was 28 at McFarland. Satellite imagery indicates widespread dense fog through the center of the valley from just north of Delano to near Stockton on the north.

 

The Santa Ana winds are cranked up in southern California. Differences in pressure are fairly strong between the interior and the coast. For example, the altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.0 while at LAX the current reading is 30.23 inches of mercury. Some of this drier air is mixing into Kern County, which is relatively fog-free this morning.

 

In the big picture, a low center is parked over central and northern Baja while a ridge of upper level pressure off shore extends northeastward over central California and the Pacific Northwest, creating a northwest flow aloft. At the surface, relatively strong high pressure is centered over northern Utah. The off shore high will build even further north, driving Pacific storms mainly into Washington and British Columbia. Stable dry weather will continue for the next week and likely into the first week of December. It now appears the entire month of November will also be precipitation free.

 

We had that monster storm back in late October and that has been our rainfall season, so far.

 

Forecast: Widespread dense fog and low clouds, especially up the center of the valley north of Kern County today. Widespread fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County with hazy afternoon sunshine each day through next Thursday with occasional periods of high clouds above the fog.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 63/33/62/34/64 Reedley 62/33/62/33/63 Dinuba 61/31/62/33/63
Porterville 65/32/63/33/65 Lindsay 65/31/62/32/64 Delano 64/32/62/34/64
Bakersfield 67/40/63/41/65 Taft 65/48/64/48/67 Arvin 68/38/68/40/65
Lamont 67/38/65/40/65 Pixley 65/32/62/34/63 Tulare 62/30/62/32/63
Woodlake 64/33/64/33/65 Hanford 64/33/62/34/62 Orosi 63/32/62/33/64

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

37/64

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

39/68

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

38/68

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

40/67

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

41/69

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  December 1 through December 7: This model still shows the storm track moving further south, possibly affecting central California.  However, some medium range models don’t favor this outcome. For now, we’ll go with a minimal chance of rain and above average temperatures.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost: Last night went pretty much as planned with widespread low to mid 30s. The coldest location as of 6:00am was 28 at McFarland while Exeter and Lindsay dropped to 30. Temperatures this morning are anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees colder this morning than 24 hours ago. Now that a marginally colder air mass is in place on the valley floor, it will lead to a string of readings generally in the 30s. there is a considerable amount of fog and low clouds this morning, mainly along the 99-corridor. With the very short days of late November, it becomes more difficult for the sun to do its job and burn off these clouds. However, it’s been almost a month since any decent rain has touched the valley. So, even though conditions are ideal for fog, the overall environment is fairly dry so I do believe most areas will remain relatively clear, especially near the foothills and in Kern County. I would anticipate low to mid 30s again tonight and once more Friday night with slight moderation through the weekend and into next week.

Still nothing out there suggesting an especially cold pattern on the horizon.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

McFarland

29

Ducor

af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

E1

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

31

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

af

Sanger River Bottom

29

root creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

af

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/45%  Porterville, 100%/43%.  Dew points:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .29, Arvin .44, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .38, Delano .29. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 61, Parlier 59, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 57, Delano 52. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 61/40.  Record Temperatures: 76/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  319  -26. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.35. Monthly  .30. -.36

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +28.  Month to date  .01 -.38

Average Temperature this month: 56.2, +2.0. Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 38 , Parlier, 54 ,  Arvin,  46, Belridge,  58  ,Shafter, 49 , Stratford, 84 , Delano, 58 , Porterville, 64`

Sunrise. 6:48 Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:57

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  57 /  34 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  56 /  35 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  61 /  42 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  59 /  35 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  61 /  32 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  62 /  38 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  63 /  36 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  63 /  36 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   248    0.09     5     1.74    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   230    0.10     8     1.33    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    2.00   140    1.08    76     1.43    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    58    0.16    14     1.13    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   129    0.28    23     1.22    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   132    0.13    14     0.94     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   142    0.39    58     0.67     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   132       T     0     0.59     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   143    0.37    24     1.53    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      M       M     M       M     M        M    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40   101    0.25    18     1.39    13.32

 

Next report: November 26