The low clouds and fog that have plagued the valley the past few weeks largely dissipated yesterday, but has re-formed as dense fog, mainly along the east side. There are areas of relatively good visibility, however. As of 6:00am, Bakersfield was reporting 4 miles, Porterville 5 miles, and 10 miles at Lemoore. Unfortunately on this busiest travel day of the year, Visalia, Fresno, and Madera were reporting a visibility of less than ¼ of a mile.
The weak trough of low pressure that moved through has spread a marginally colder air mass into California. Even with the areas of fog, dew points are anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Tonight will be somewhat colder with spotty frost. Most locations will be in the low to mid 30s. Ditto that for Friday morning, as well.
In the big picture, a weak low center is off the southern California coast with upper level high pressure wrapping around the top of the low into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The flow both at the surface and aloft has become more easterly, resulting in a classic Santa Ana wind configuration. The valley will again be capped, which, as we know, is favorable for the return of fog and low clouds. However, the air mass is somewhat drier so there will be more widespread afternoon clearing.
Medium range models don’t show much hope for rain. Previous model runs showed the possibility of rain for the first week in December, but is apparently taking that back as they now show a blocking ridge.
Forecast: Areas of dense fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County, this morning with hazy afternoon sunshine. Areas of dense fog and low clouds with afternoon clearing tonight through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/32/65/33/65 | Reedley 59/32/62/33/63 | Dinuba 59/32/62/34/63 |
| Porterville 62/34/62/34/63 | Lindsay 63/31/62/32/62 | Delano 60/33/63/34/63 |
| Bakersfield 64/39/65/40/64 | Taft 60/45/65/47/64 | Arvin 64/37/65/39/65 |
| Lamont 63/36/64/38/64 | Pixley 61/32/62/33/63 | Tulare 60/31/62/32/62 |
| Woodlake 59/31/62/32/62 | Hanford 60/34/63/34/63 | Orosi 60/32/62/32/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 36/64 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/64 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 38/67 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 39/67 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 40/68 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: This model still shows the storm track moving further south, possibly affecting central California. However, some medium range models don’t favor this outcome. For now, we’ll go with a minimal chance of rain and above average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Kind of a mixed bag out there this morning. There’s a lot of fog and low clouds that re-formed mainly north of Kern County along the east side. The air mass currently in place is marginally colder. Dew points are anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Look for the fog to burn off later today and form once again in many areas tonight, despite lower dew points. However, I do believe temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s tonight and again Wednesday night due to having a marginally colder environment and a better chance of afternoon clearing at most locations. If anything, this is good news as there’s no threat to citrus, but it is a good pattern to rack up some chilling hours. Look for minor modification over the weekend. Temperatures, both day and night, will be governed by the amount of fog and low clouds and when they happen to burn off. Longer term, there’s nothing out there to suggest a particularly cold weather pattern. Congratulate me as here it is November 24 and this is the first day this season I will include frost numbers in this report.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/59% Porterville, 100%/51%. Dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .33, Parlier .26, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .36, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 61, Parlier 59, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 58, Delano 53. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40. Record Temperatures: 78/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 302 -28. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.38. Monthly .30. -.33
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +30. Month to date .01 -.36
Average Temperature this month: 56.6, +2.2. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 29 , Parlier, 44 , Arvin, 38, Belridge, 46 ,Shafter, 36 , Stratford, 72 , Delano, 45 , Porterville, 52`
Sunrise. 6:47 Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:58
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 61 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 257 0.09 5 1.68 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 237 0.10 8 1.29 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 143 1.08 77 1.40 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 59 0.16 15 1.10 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 132 0.28 24 1.19 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 136 0.13 14 0.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 146 0.39 60 0.65 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 134 T 0 0.58 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 148 0.37 25 1.48 12.58
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 104 0.25 19 1.35 13.32
Next report: November 25