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November 24, 2021/report

The low clouds and fog that have plagued the valley the past few weeks largely dissipated yesterday, but has re-formed as dense fog, mainly along the east side.  There are areas of relatively good visibility, however. As of 6:00am, Bakersfield was reporting 4 miles, Porterville 5 miles, and 10 miles at Lemoore. Unfortunately on this busiest travel day of the year, Visalia, Fresno, and Madera were reporting a visibility of less than ¼ of a mile.

 

The weak trough of low pressure that moved through has spread a marginally colder air mass into California. Even with the areas of fog, dew points are anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Tonight will be somewhat colder with spotty frost. Most locations will be in the low to mid 30s. Ditto that for Friday morning, as well.

 

In the big picture, a weak low center is off the southern California coast with upper level  high pressure wrapping around the top of the low into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The  flow both at the surface and aloft has become more easterly, resulting in a classic Santa Ana wind configuration. The valley will again be capped, which, as we know, is favorable for the return of fog and low clouds. However, the air mass is somewhat drier so there will be more widespread afternoon clearing.

 

Medium range models don’t show much hope for rain. Previous model runs showed the possibility of rain for the first week in December, but is apparently taking that back as they now show a blocking ridge.

 

Forecast: Areas of dense fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County, this morning with  hazy afternoon sunshine. Areas of dense fog and low clouds with afternoon clearing tonight through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 60/32/65/33/65 Reedley 59/32/62/33/63 Dinuba 59/32/62/34/63
Porterville 62/34/62/34/63 Lindsay 63/31/62/32/62 Delano 60/33/63/34/63
Bakersfield 64/39/65/40/64 Taft 60/45/65/47/64 Arvin 64/37/65/39/65
Lamont 63/36/64/38/64 Pixley 61/32/62/33/63 Tulare 60/31/62/32/62
Woodlake 59/31/62/32/62 Hanford 60/34/63/34/63 Orosi 60/32/62/32/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

36/64

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

38/64

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

38/67

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

39/67

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

40/68

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  December 1 through December 7: This model still shows the storm track moving further south, possibly affecting central California.  However, some medium range models don’t favor this outcome. For now, we’ll go with a minimal chance of rain and above average temperatures.

 

December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Frost: Kind of a mixed bag out there this morning. There’s a lot of fog and low clouds that re-formed mainly north of Kern County along the east side. The air mass currently in place is marginally colder.  Dew points are anywhere from 8 to 11 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Look for the fog to burn off later today and form once again in many areas tonight, despite lower dew points. However, I do believe temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s tonight and again Wednesday night due to having a marginally colder environment and a better chance of afternoon clearing at most locations.  If anything, this is good news as there’s no threat to citrus, but it is a good pattern to rack up some chilling hours. Look for minor modification over the weekend. Temperatures, both day and night, will be governed by the amount of fog and low clouds and when they happen to burn off.  Longer term, there’s nothing out there to suggest a particularly cold weather pattern. Congratulate me as here it is November 24 and this is the first day this season I will include frost numbers in this report.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

32

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

32

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

32

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/59%  Porterville, 100%/51%.  Dew points:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .33, Parlier .26, Arvin .42, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .36, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 61, Parlier 59, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 58, Delano 53. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 61/40.  Record Temperatures: 78/29

Heating Degree Days This Season.  302  -28. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .1.57 or +.38. Monthly  .30. -.33

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, .95 or +30.  Month to date  .01 -.36

Average Temperature this month: 56.6, +2.2. Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 29 , Parlier, 44 ,  Arvin,  38, Belridge,  46  ,Shafter, 36 , Stratford, 72 , Delano, 45 , Porterville, 52`

Sunrise. 6:47 Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:58

NA=missing

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  66 /  39 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  63 /  39 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  61 /  46 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  60 /  38 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  65 /  37 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  70 /  45 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  60 /  39 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  38 /  0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                    24hr     season  %      L.Y.    %     Ave.   Annual total ave

STOCKTON                      0.00    4.32   257    0.09     5     1.68    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    3.06   237    0.10     8     1.29    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    2.00   143    1.08    77     1.40    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    0.65    59    0.16    15     1.10    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    1.57   132    0.28    24     1.19    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    1.24   136    0.13    14     0.91     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.95   146    0.39    60     0.65     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    0.78   134       T     0     0.58     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    2.19   148    0.37    25     1.48    12.58

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.40   104    0.25    19     1.35    13.32

 

Next report: November 25