November 26, 2021
The drier and somewhat colder air mass has now settled on the valley floor. There is much less fog this morning, however there is an area of high clouds moving overhead. This is also helping to inhibit the formation of fog. With a drier air mass, radiational cooling has a chance to lower temperatures below freezing in some areas. Low to mid 30s were again widespread overnight, which is discussed more in the frost section below.
In the big picture, there is an upper low parked over northern Baja while upper level high pressure is wrapped around the top of the low into the Pacific Northwest and California. The downward motion of the atmosphere around the high is creating another warm air inversion which will be more favorable for fog formation in the night and early morning hours. Due to the lack of rain the past few weeks, the valley has dried out so that will also inhibit widespread fog.
The high will strengthen and build further north the next few days, driving the storm track way up into British Columbia. Some models are holding out hope. The GFS model, which is one of the medium range models, shows the high moving well off shore, allowing storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California around the 4th or 5th of December. This is just one model and no real trend is showing up yet. Nevertheless, we’ll keep a watchful eye on it.
Forecast: Outside of occasional high clouds and areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, it will be mostly clear and hazy through next Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/33/63/34/65 | Reedley 62/32/63/33/64 | Dinuba 61/31/63/32/64 |
| Porterville 64/33/65/34/65 | Lindsay 63/31/63/32/64 | Delano 63/32/63/34/66 |
| Bakersfield 64/40/64/43/67 | Taft 67/48/68/49/69 | Arvin 64/38/64/39/70 |
| Lamont 64/38/64/39/70 | Pixley 63/32/63/33/65 | Tulare 62/31/63/32/64 |
| Woodlake 62/32/63/33/67 | Hanford 62/32/63/34/65 | Orosi 62/32/62/33/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 37/66 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 37/67 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 39/67 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 38/69 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 39/69 |
Two Week Outlook: December 3 through December 9: This model is indicating the storm door opening from the Gulf of Alaska as the eastern Pacific high slides off shore. The chance of precipitation seems slightly high during this period with above average temperatures.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Monday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Now that the valley is once again capped by a warm air inversion, we are stuck with a relatively dry but seasonably cold air mass on the valley floor. Fog formation will again play a central role, however fog will have a more difficult time forming due to the fact we’ve had a completely dry November. With the very short days of late November, there is plenty of time for radiational cooling to temperatures down into the low to mid 30s. as of 6:00am, McFarland had dropped to 29 with Lindsay and Reedley showing 30 degrees. I would anticipate similar conditions tonight with possible slight moderation by early next week. There remains nothing on medium range models suggesting a freezing weather pattern, which worries me a bit because at some point the pattern will reverse, resulting in cold weather. For now, though, all is well.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 93%/31% Porterville, 100%/32%. Dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .29, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .38, Delano .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 60, Parlier 58, Arvin, .59, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 56, Delano 52. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 60/40. Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 333 -27. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.31. Monthly .30. -.40
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +26. Month to date .01 -.40
Average Temperature this month: 56.0, +1.9. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 48 , Parlier, 67 , Arvin, 56, Belridge, 72 ,Shafter, 63 , Stratford, 96 , Delano, 72 , Porterville, 78 `
Sunrise. 6:49 Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:55
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 68 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 241 0.09 5 1.79 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 223 0.10 7 1.37 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 136 1.08 73 1.47 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 56 0.16 14 1.17 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 125 0.28 22 1.26 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 129 0.13 14 0.96 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 138 0.39 57 0.69 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 130 T 0 0.60 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 139 0.37 23 1.58 12.58
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 98 0.25 17 1.43 13.32
Next report: November 27