December 9, 2021pm
The rain has ended with the exception of some lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada as of 1:00pm. A colder air mass is driving down the valley. It will set the stage for some frosty mornings through Friday. More on the frost discussion below.
Precipitation amounts were fairly significant in most of the valley, generally between ¼ and ½ inch. We’re going to dry out for a few days now as upper le level high pressure will build in from the west. Afternoon highs will only range in the 50s Friday with mid 50s for the highs Saturday. ‘
Models are still bullish on a full fledged winter storm pounding central California Monday through Tuesday night. This system, on paper, has all the characteristics and strong dynamics for heavy rain along the Sierra Nevada with substantial rain on the valley floor. A strong rain shadow may complicate things along the west side and in Kern County. It’s quite possible a pineapple connection may develop. If it does, heavy precipitation will occur along the Sierra Nevada with several feet of new snow over the high country.
Gusty winds will also be a challenge as we anticipate strong pressure differences between the parent low off the northern California/Oregon coast and the intermountain west. This storm will be a slow mover so it will be Wednesday before we’re completely out of the woods with this system. Another trough of low pressure will move through about Thursday of next week, but it pales in comparison to the next storm in the parade.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight. Areas of low clouds and fog developing after midnight. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with areas of low clouds and fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of rain Sunday night. Rain likely Monday through Tuesday evening, possibly heavy at times. Showers Tuesday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/52/32/55 | Reedley 36/50/29/53 | Dinuba 34/51/28/52 |
| Porterville 35/50/29/52 | Lindsay 33/51/28/52 | Delano 38/51/30/52 |
| Bakersfield 43/52/35/55 | Taft 44/50/39/54 | Arvin 40/50/45/55 |
| Lamont 41/51/34/53 | Pixley 38/50/29/52 | Tulare 37/50/28/53 |
| Woodlake 36/51/28/52 | Hanford 38/51/30/53 | Orosi 33/51/28/54 |
Wind: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest this evening at no more than 5 to 10 mph with light winds after midnight and periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday through Saturday night will be generally variable at no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will begin to pick up by Sunday evening, mainly out of the southeast at 10 too 20 mph. winds Monday and Monday night will continue out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are sample rainfall amounts as of 1;30pm. Bakersfield .13, Delano .35, Kettleman Hills .16, Porterville .43, Visalia .53, Hanford .25, Lemoore .22, and Fresno .41.
Dry conditions will now prevail through Sunday. A vigorous winter storm will spread rain over the entire district beginning Sunday night, especially north of Fresno. The weather will be very active Monday through Tuesday night. This will be a full blown winter storm, meaning we will have to tackle the rain shadow issue along the west side and in Kern County. For now, it looks like the east side of the valley could pick up more than an inch of precipitation. Amounts along the west side will generally range between ¼ and 1/3 of an inch with less than ¼ in the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Wednesday. A weak trough will move through Thursday, but at this point it appears to be too weak for precipitation.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. It is possible a few low spots that have clear skies for much of the night could dip down to 31 or 32. It will be colder Saturday morning with widespread upper 20s and low 30s. a few low lying frost pockets may dip down to 25 or 26 for a short time Sunday morning. We may also see the generation of upslope clouds along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi’s and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, so there is a chance some locations in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County may remain in the 30s. at any rate, this is not a dangerous freeze situation. Even so, some areas may benefit from protective measures.
We may see conditions similar to Saturday’s on Sunday morning. Cloud cover may spread in early enough Sunday morning to keep temperatures above freezing. All locations will be above freezing Monday through Thursday of next week. We could see upper 20s and lower 30s again next Tuesday. That’s just speculation on my part. In any case, nothing dangerous is looming on the horizon.
Next report: December 10