December 12, 2021
If you’re a meteorologist, you wait for big weather events to occur and that has happened today as a powerful winter storm is dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and will be positioned off the Oregon/northern California coast late tonight through Monday. This system has very strong upper air dynamics. Also, at the surface, already tightly wound isobars are showing up on surface charts. This means strong gusty winds will begin to increase later this evening through Monday out of the southeast. Strongest winds will be along the west side and in Kern County where wind gusts to 40 mph are possible. Sixty mile per hour gusts wouldn’t surprise me near the bottom of the Grapevine, sweeping over towards Taft and Belridge. Many times, forecast models will back off a bit on forecast estimate, but that will not be the case this time around. Four to six feet of new snow will accumulate…some models take it out to eight feet…in the high county. In the foothills, estimates say 3 to 5 inches of rain will accumulate. Valley rainfall estimates will be in the rainfall discussion below.
Rain will come to an end later Tuesday night as the low moves inland. A short break in the action will occur Wednesday, but as early as Wednesday night, the next storm to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska will head into California. This system won’t be nearly as impressive, but even so, we should pick up another .25 to .50.
Upper level high pressure will begin to ridge in from the southwest Friday and through the weekend. The two week model shows central California with the highest chance of rain of any real estate in the lower 48.
Forecast: increasing cloudiness today. Rain likely late tonight through late Tuesday evening, locally heavy at times. Expect strong, gusty southeast winds tonight and Monday. A chance of showers later Tuesday night and early Wednesday, otherwise it will be mostly to partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness again Wednesday night with periods of rain Thursday and Thursday night. Mostly cloudy Friday. Becoming partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
Madera 58/45/56/45/51 | Reedley 58/44//56/46/52 | Dinuba 57/43/56/46/51 |
Porterville 60/44/57/48/52 | Lindsay 59/45/56/46/51 | Delano 60/44/56/48/51 |
Bakersfield 61/42/59/41/52 | Taft 59/47/58/50/54 | Arvin 62/43/60/50/53 |
Lamont 61/44/58/48/52 | Pixley 59/45/56/48/50 | Tulare 58/44/56/47/51 |
Woodlake 58/44/56/47/52 | Hanford 58/43/56/45/51 | Orosi 57/43/56/46/51 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 58/68 |
Thursday
Periods of rain 37/48 |
Friday
AM showers possible 36/52 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 33/53 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/51 |
Two Week Outlook: December 19 through Christmas: Central California has the greatest risk of above average precipitation of any location in the lower 48. The flow aloft during this time frame will be generally out of the northwest, so expect above average temperatures to continue.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at around 6 to 12 mph, diminishing later today with light winds tonight. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph late Sunday night through Monday night with gusts to 35 mph possible. Winds Tuesday will become out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: If this storm lives up to expectations, it will be a blockbuster. High resolution quantitative rainfall estimates are about as high as you’ll ever see them. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor north of Kern County and along the east side will range between 1 and 2 inches. The rain shadow will be evident on the valley side of the coast range. Even so, upwards to half an inch can be expected. Over the valley portion of Kern County, between .25 and .50 can be expected, as well. This is for the period tonight through Tuesday night. Generally light rain has already developed from Merced north this morning and will continue to move slowly southward with showers as far south as Fresno County later this afternoon. Later tonight through Monday night, ,rain will be heavy at times, tapering off into showers late Tuesday afternoon and ending sometime Tuesday night. Wednesday will be dry, but the next system will arrive Thursday with periods of rain through Thursday night. Expect dry weather Friday through Saturday then the active pattern will begin anew next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. From Thursday and through next week, any night with clear skies will see upper 20s to the mid 30s. the greatest risk of local frost will be Friday through Sunday.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/89% Porterville, 98%/68%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .19, Parlier .18, Arvin .29, Orange Cove .20, Porterville .20, Delano .18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 55, Arvin, .56, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 56/37. Record Temperatures: 69/18
Heating Degree Days This Season. 571 -68. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.98 or +.03. Monthly .41. -.11
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10 or -01. Month to date .15 or -.17
Average Temperature this month: 49.0, +.2.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 155, Parlier, 219 , Arvin, 195, Belridge, 219 ,Shafter, 212 , Stratford, 236 , Delano, 209 , Porterville, 246
Sunrise. 7:03, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 55 / 36 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 36 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.43 153 0.42 15 2.89 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.32 142 0.50 21 2.33 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.22 99 1.49 66 2.25 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.69 36 0.32 16 1.94 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.98 102 0.36 18 1.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.56 106 0.19 13 1.47 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 99 0.39 35 1.11 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 95 T 0 0.82 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.36 91 0.53 21 2.58 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.55 69 0.25 11 2.25 13.32
Next report: December 12 PM