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Forecast

December 12, 2021/afternoon report

December 12, 2021pm

You  may remember that in late October we were talking about a blockbuster winter storm moving in and that many times forecast models have overestimated things like precipitation estimates. A similar situation exists today as a powerful winter storm is moving southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Generally light precipitation has been falling from roughly Merced County north today. The rain will inch slowly southward tonight. Already, a rain shadow is showing up on the west side of the valley. I almost hate to forecast excessive amounts of precipitation, but since there is such model continuity, we’ll go ahead and roll the dice.

 

As much as 6 to 8 feet of new snow is possible from Tulare  County north in the southern Sierra Nevada. Below the snow level, 2 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated with between 1 and  2 inches of rain along the east side north of Kern County. More below.

 

Winds will be the other element of this storm to watch as isobars are tightening up on surface charts. Isobars are lines of equal pressure. When they’re tightly winds, strong winds will be the result.

 

The trough will slowly move inland tonight through Tuesday. The jet stream is flanked underneath the low which is now anchored off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Heaviest precipitation will occur later Monday through early Tuesday afternoon before rain tapers off into showers Tuesday night. Dry weather will briefly return Wednesday only to be followed by another trough of low pressure also moving in from the Gulf of Alaska Thursday into Friday. This storm’s dynamics appear to be a great deal weaker. Even so, it may turn out to be an average winter type storm.

 

A few days of dry weather will follow. However, medium range models for week after next are showing a series of storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska then south/southeast into California. As long as we keep the ball rolling, this may turn out to be a decent water year yet.

 

A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Friday. The air mass behind the second system will be cold, so it’s possible we could see some frost nights by next weekend.

 

Forecast: Rain spreading slowly southward tonight. Rain Monday through Tuesday, locally heavy at times. Showers tapering off Tuesday  night. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness again Wednesday night with periods of showers Thursday and Thursday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night into Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 44/57/46/52 Reedley 43/58/46/51 Dinuba 44/57/45/50
Porterville 45/60/46/52 Lindsay 44/59/47/52 Delano 46/58/46/52
Bakersfield 49/60/48/52 Taft 50/54/49/52 Arvin 45/61/45/53
Lamont 47/60/47/52 Pixley 44/59/46/52 Tulare 43/57/46/51
Woodlake 43/59/45/52 Hanford 44/59/46/51 Orosi 43/57/45/52

                                 

Wind: Winds will increase out of the southeast after midnight at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 15 to 30 mph. Gusts to 40 mph are possible, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Gusts to 50 mph or more cannot be ruled out near the base of the grapevine, westwards towards Taft. Winds later Tuesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds will decrease Tuesday night to 8 to 15 mph with generally light winds Wednesday.

 

Rain:  Rain will slowly spread southeastward across the valley tonight. Already we’re seeing the development of a rain shadow in Merced County. That will spread southward along with the rain so precipitation amounts will be considerably lighter along the west side and down in Kern County. High resolution models are still indicating between 1 and 2 inches of rain generally east of Highway 99. Anywhere from .33 to .75 is possible along the west side. Even though Kern County will be under a strong rain shadow for much of this event, a good .50 of an inch can be expected. These estimates are for tonight through Tuesday night.

 

There will be a brief dry slot of weather Wednesday through Wednesday night. The next storm upstream will spread rain over the central valley Thursday through Thursday night. This system isn’t nearly as potent, but could still turn out to be an average winter storm. Models show at least 72 hours of dry weather later Friday through Sunday, but models are showing a series of storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California later next week.

Frost: The air mass which will settle into the valley Friday behind all this active weather is cold, but not very cold. Any day with mostly clear skies will see temperatures plummet into the low to mid 30s with a chance of upper 20s. again, that will be Friday through Monday.

Models continue to show a pattern that would bring storms out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California from time to time next week.  These are cold storms, but as long as the pattern remains active, readings will remain above freezing.

 

Next report: December 13