December 13, 2021
Showers have spread as far south as Fresno and will work into the remainder of the valley over the next few hours. This storm will be coming inland in phases. Phase 2 will arrive tonight and Tuesday and will be the main event. The other challenge will be wind. Already this morning, winds at Lemoore on the west side are sustained at 22 mph, gusting to 29. As the parent low, which is off the southern Oregon/northern California coast, moves inland, there will be a great deal of wind activity, especially over the far west side of the valley and possibly over portions of Kern County. High resolution show Taft with projected wind gusts of 44 mph with winds approaching 40 mph in Bakersfield and Delano.
The east side of the valley, mainly from Fresno County southward, is generally protected from these winds by the giant wall to the east known as the Sierra Nevada. As the main body of low pressure moves through later tonight and Tuesday, a solid area of precipitation will move down the valley, bringing significant amounts of rain and, again, strong gusty winds. High resolution models are keeping with the idea that most locations on the east side north of Kern County will pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain with 3 to 5 inches along the Sierra Nevada foothills and 4 to 6 feet of new snow with possibly as much as 8 feet in favored locations above 7,000 feet.
The back side of the trough will move to the east of the Sierra Nevada by late Tuesday night, allowing the rain to taper off to scattered showers. There will be a short break in the action before the next system rolls out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California on Thursday.
The weekend will be dry but cold as the air mass following the Thursday system will be a chilly one with temperatures not even reaching 50 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. more about this below in the frost discussion.
Medium range models are still showing storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California from time to time next week. For the second day in a row, the two week model is pointing to above average precipitation for central California. In fact, the greatest possibility of rain anywhere in the lower 48 is central California.
Forecast: Showers this morning. Showers this afternoon turning to rain tonight, continuing Tuesday. Showers Tuesday night. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday with a few showers possible near the foothills Tuesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Showers likely Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and continued cold. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 55/45/50/33/48 | Reedley 57/47/51/34/47 | Dinuba 56/46/51/32/47 |
Porterville 59/47/50/32/47 | Lindsay 59/47/52/32/47 | Delano 58/47/52/34/48 |
Bakersfield 60/47/52/37/46 | Taft 58/50/52/37/46 | Arvin 60/48/52/34/48 |
Lamont 59/46/52/45/56 | Pixley 58/47/52/34/48 | Tulare 56/46/51/32/47 |
Woodlake 58/46/51/33/48 | Hanford 57/47/52/33/48 | Orosi 55/45/51/32/48 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Showers likely 35/48 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 37/48 |
Saturday
AM fog/pm sun 32/52 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 33/49 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 32/51 |
Two Week Outlook: December 19 through Christmas: Central California has the greatest risk of above average precipitation of any location in the lower 48. The flow aloft during this time frame will be generally out of the northwest, so expect above average temperatures to continue.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will depend on where your real estate is located. From roughly Ducor northward along the east side of the valley, winds will generally be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Along the west side, winds will be out of the southeast at 20 to 35 mph with gusts to near 45 possible. Winds in Kern County will be out of the east to southeast at 20 to 30 mph. Gusts to near 50 MPH are certainly possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains and westward near the Tumbler Range. These winds will die off by late Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night through Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Doppler radar is showing light showers now as far south as northwest Kern County with plenty of precipitation rolling over the westward mountains. The precipitation pattern for today will be mainly showery. As that intense low pressure system off the Oregon/northern California coast makes its move inland, the precipitation will increase. I wouldn’t rule out a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.. satellite imagery shows a popcorn appearance to the cloud cover off the northern California coast. This is typically associated with a cold pool of stable air. It will be moving overhead Tuesday. It’s going to be interesting to see how models have fared the past few days in predicting rainfall amounts. So far today, precip amounts have been light, but we have plenty of time to see if projections are even close. Models still show between 1 and 2 inches along the east side of the valley north of Kern County and between .25 and .75 along the west side. Upwards to .50 is anticipated over the valley portion of Kern County.
Precipitation will taper off Tuesday evening with a short break in the precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers will again spread down the valley Thursday, lasting into Thursday night. Dry weather will return Friday, lasting through the weekend and into early next week. Models indicate the pattern will become active again after roughly Tuesday of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. On Wednesday morning, it’s possible coldest locations will dip into the lower 30s. the air mass following the current storm is cold, but also extremely wet. Readings will not even reach 50 degrees in many areas Wednesday. However, clouds will already be increasing ahead of the next system Wednesday night, keeping temperatures in the 30s. Upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible under ideal conditions. All locations will be above freezing Friday, but only slightly above in some locations due to cloud cover. As we move into the coming weekend and the following week, a cold air mass will be in place. The chance of upper 20s to lower 30s will be there for Saturday through Monday mornings as medium range models show an active, but cold, pattern as we move closer to Christmas.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/38% Porterville, 100%/47%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 20%/. Tomorrow, 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .29, Parlier .20, Arvin .31, Orange Cove .21, Porterville .21, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 57, Parlier 54, Arvin, .55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 55, Delano 47 . *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37. Record Temperatures: 72/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 590 -68. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.98 or +.03. Monthly .41. -.16
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10 or -05. Month to date .15 or -.19
Average Temperature this month: 48.8, +.1.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 163, Parlier, 218 , Arvin, 195, Belridge, 219 ,Shafter, 212 , Stratford, 246 , Delano, 219 , Porterville, 250
Sunrise. 7:04, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:41
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
: Max Min 24-Hr Snow
: Id Name Elev Temp Temp Pcpn Depth
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 51 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 52 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 52 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 51 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
vIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 59 / 41 / 0.00 /
:
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.09 4.52 152 0.55 19 2.97 13.45
MODESTO 0.08 3.40 142 0.69 29 2.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.22 96 1.73 75 2.31 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.69 35 0.49 25 2.00 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.98 99 0.62 31 2.00 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.56 103 0.27 18 1.51 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 96 0.39 34 1.15 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 93 T 0 0.84 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.36 89 0.53 20 2.64 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.55 67 0.26 11 2.31 13.32
Next report: December 13 PM