December 15, 2021
There are some rainfall amounts from this blockbuster winter storm in the rain discussion below. The center of circulation has accelerated eastward to a position over the Four Corners region. Much of the Midwest will be raked by high winds, rain or snow. Model information on this storm over the past week or so has been amazingly accurate.
Now that the system has moved eastward, the next one is already bearing down on central California. Rainfall amounts will not be nearly as impressive, however .25 to .33 would not be a surprise in most locations north of Kern County.
The air mass involved with these systems is quite cold. Most ag locations are reporting low to mid 30s. more on that in the frost discussion below.
The chance of rain will begin to increase later this evening, becoming likely later tonight and Thursday, tapering off Thursday evening as the back side of the low shifts to the east of the Sierras. Upper level high pressure will build northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and California to ensure dry weather through at least Sunday night.
Next up, a storm that will arrive Monday through Tuesday. Medium range models indicate this will be yet another low to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California roughly Christmas Day. In fact, medium range models show a persistent trough along the west coast stretching from Alaska to California between Christmas and New Year’s.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with patchy fog this morning. increasing clouds this evening with periods of light rain later tonight through Thursday morning. A chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening. mostly to partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with areas of morning low clouds and fog. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of rain by evening. Rain becoming likely at times later Monday night through Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/38/53/34/48 | Reedley 51/38/53/35/49 | Dinuba 49/38/53/34/48 |
| Porterville 51/49/54/34/49 | Lindsay 49/37/53/34/48 | Delano 50/40/52/37/49 |
| Bakersfield 50/41/53/41/49 | Taft 48/40/51/47/49 | Arvin 49/41/52/41/49 |
| Lamont 48/41/53/40/48 | Pixley 49/38/53/38/50 | Tulare 48/39/53/37/49 |
| Woodlake 49/38/53/35/48 | Hanford 51/41/52/46/48 | Orosi 49/37/53/35/50 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/51 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 31/51 |
Monday
Chance of rain 34/52 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 38/55 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 40/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 21 through December 27: Central California has the greatest risk of above average precipitation of any location in the lower 48. The flow aloft during this time frame will be generally out of the northwest, so expect above average temperatures to continue.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with areas of near calm conditions today. Winds tonight and Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 12 MPH. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at generally no more than 10 MPH.
Rain: The rainfall season thus far has been characterized generally by two storms. The first hit in late October with many locations recording more than an inch of precipitation. Then there was yesterday’s event which resulted in heavy amounts of precipitation up and down the valley not to mention the nearby mountains. The following are some rainfall amounts: Bakersfield .97, Delano 1.09, Exeter 1.99, Lemoore 1.36, Five Points .91, Visalia 1.17, Fresno 1.30, and Porterville 1.64.
We’ll have a very short period of dry weather today before the next system hits tonight and Thursday morning. This system is a weak one compared to yesterday’s event, but even so, it should turn out to be a typical winter storm. Most locations north of Kern County should receive somewhere in the .25 to 1.00 inch, in Kern County perhaps .10 to .20. The rain will begin to taper off by Thursday evening with dry weather Friday through Sunday. Medium range models show a series of storms affecting central California beginning Monday of next week. The timing of these systems is a bit difficult to discern, but by and large, expect wet periods from Monday through Christmas Day. Models also indicate an active pattern with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California through the end of the year, which is a huge blessing.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. It’s possible the very coldest locations could dip into the lower 30s Friday morning. Most locations, however, should range in the low 30s. for Saturday and Sunday mornings, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected with the frost spots possibly dipping into the upper 20s. Generally, above freezing conditions can be expected Monday through Wednesday of next week due to cloud cover and showers from time to time.
There’s still nothing to suggest a pattern which would be conducive for critically cold weather.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/49% Porterville, 100%/82%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .34, Parlier .19, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .22, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 56, Parlier 53, Arvin, .54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 50, Delano 46 . *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37. Record Temperatures: 76/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 625 -70 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 3.27 +or +.1.17. Monthly .1.70. +1.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, or 2.07 or +70. Month to date 1.12 or +.70
Average Temperature this month: 48.5 +.1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 163, Parlier, 232 , Arvin, 229, Belridge, 248 , Shafter, 248 , Stratford, 243, Delano, 239 , Porterville, 269
Sunrise. 7:05, Sunset, 4:44, hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 52 / 33 / M /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 49 / 35 / M /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 46 / 37 / 0.72 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 47 / 32 / 0.56 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 48 / 31 / 0.50 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 37 / 0.97 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 45 / 34 / 0.93 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 47 / 35 / 1.40 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON M M M M M M 13.45
MODESTO M M M M M M 12.27
MERCED 0.80 3.52 145 1.91 79 2.43 11.80
MADERA M 0.93 44 0.55 26 2.12 10.79
FRESNO 1.03 3.27 156 1.07 51 2.10 10.99
HANFORD 0.87 2.48 157 0.49 31 1.58 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.90 2.00 165 0.40 33 1.21 6.36
BISHOP 1.35 2.62 301 0.01 1 0.87 4.84
SALINAS 1.25 4.97 179 0.66 24 2.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 1.13 3.53 145 0.30 12 2.43 13.32
Next report: December 15 PM