December 15, 2021pm
Light showers have spread as far south as a San Francisco/Sacramento line as of the time of this writing. This is little changed from this morning. The front will be on the move again by this evening, spreading light showers down the valley, mainly north of Kern County. This system is much weaker than its predecessor. In fact, I would anticipate rainfall amounts in the .20 to .30 category with Kern County picking up less than .10. Many locations in Kern County recorded about 20% of their annual rainfall total with the current system. The Sierra Nevada picked up a bushel of snow. In fact, there is an avalanche warning along the entire eastern slope. When is the last time we saw that?
Showers will spread into Fresno County during the late evening hours and into the south valley during the predawn hours. Most of the action should be over by midday Thursday. behind this system, upper level high pressure will settle in for a few days with dry weather through Sunday. The air mass behind our current system will be quite cold. On Saturday and Sunday mornings, readings will drop back into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. more in the frost discussion below.
Medium range models still show an active pattern across the western US for the next couple of weeks. Rain will be likely again Monday into Tuesday then possibly Christmas Day through the 26th. The new two week model out this afternoon indicates there’s a high confidence level of periods of precipitation through the end of the year.
Forecast: Light showers spreading over the valley later this evening through roughly midday Thursday. partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. Showers becoming likely Monday into Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
Madera 38/54/36/50 | Reedley 38/53/36/49 | Dinuba 37/53/36/48 |
Porterville 39/55/37/50 | Lindsay 38/53/36/49 | Delano 39/55/37/50 |
Bakersfield 40/54/41/51 | Taft 41/51/40/48 | Arvin 37/54/40/51 |
Lamont 39/55/40/52 | Pixley 38/53/37/50 | Tulare 37/53/38/52 |
Woodlake 38/53/36/49 | Hanford 38/55/37/49 | Orosi 38/53/35/48 |
Wind: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight through Thursday and generally out of the southeast. Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Light showers will move down the valley again tonight and will be generally over by midday Thursday. this system is by no means a major Pacific storm, but could potentially add an additional .25 along the east side of the valley, .10 to .20 along the east side, and roughly .10 along the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon and continue through Sunday. Medium range models show another round of precipitation Monday into Tuesday then again around Christmas Day and the day after.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and again Thursday night. The air mass behind the weak system which will move through tonight and Thursday is quite cold. As high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest, a northeast flow will develop. Couple that with an off shore surface flow and that should be enough for upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings. Nothing critical is expected, however traditional frost pockets will possibly dip into the mid 20s. once we get to Monday through Christmas Day, readings should be above freezing due to a continuous active pattern.
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 16