December 16, 2021pm
Doppler radar, as of 1:00 pm was still picking up on some showers along the Sierra Nevada foothills and along the foothills in Kern County. Otherwise, the precipitation is drawing to a close. Upper level high pressure is just off shore and is beginning to ridge into the Pacific Northwest. By later Friday and Saturday, this will generate a northeast flow aloft. The high will shift slowly eastward during the next 72 hours. With a surface off shore flow developing, a colder air mass is invading the valley. Both on Friday and Saturday, some locations, especially north of Kern County, won’t even reach the 50 degree mark.
Satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover over the valley which is banking up against the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, so any clearing tonight will be limited, precluding any chance of frost.
The upper high will break down Sunday night, allowing a series of storms to move into California from the Gulf of Alaska. The first will move in Monday. This will be another situation where the low hangs off the coast of Oregon and northern California with the jet stream flanked underneath the low. This will allow another period of heavy rain and snow up and down the Sierra Nevada and periods of rain on the valley floor. The timing of all this is unclear, but suffice it to say there will be periods of unsettled weather mixed in with periods of dry weather between storms.
Even the two week outlook is favorable for more rain as it’s spitting out a long range forecast of above average precipitation and below average temperatures
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Friday night through Saturday morning with the exceptions of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County which may remain mostly cloudy through Sunday. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies Saturday through Sunday morning. Increasing cloudiness late Sunday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday with periods of rain.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/49/31/49 | Reedley 37/50/31/50 | Dinuba 36/48/31/49 |
| Porterville 38/48/32/48 | Lindsay 37/49/31/48 | Delano 37/49/32/48 |
| Bakersfield 42/50/37/52 | Taft 44/51/40/51 | Arvin 40/50/35/52 |
| Lamont 40/51/34/51 | Pixley 38/49/32/50 | Tulare 39/49/31/51 |
| Woodlake 38/48/31/51 | Hanford 38/49/32/50 | Orosi 37/48/30/50 |
Wind: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight through Friday and generally out of the southeast. Winds Friday night through Sunday will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts from the current system. Rainfall from this system was a fraction of what it was from the previous system. Delano .10, Stratford .05, Lemoore .24, Fresno .08, Porterville .01, Visalia .11, Exeter .12, Orange Cove .06, Kettleman Hills .04, Huron .03, Five Points .06, and Madera .03. Expect dry weather through at least Sunday and possibly Sunday night. Weather next week before Christmas will be characterized by rain punctuated by periods of dry weather. Showers will again spread in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday with possibly a break in the action Wednesday. There’s a good chance of rain on any given day after Wednesday. These will be developing storm systems, so timing is tough to discern. In any case, unsettled weather will be the standard through the end of the year.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but possibly at or just slightly above in the frost pockets. A colder air mass is spreading south. Temperatures as of 1:00pm from Madera north are only in the 40s, sloping to the upper 50s in Kern County. There is plenty of moisture on the valley floor as dew points are in the upper 40s as well. My feeling is upslope clouds will remain over the valley tonight, keeping temperatures above freezing. We may see upper 20s and lower 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings. However, many times in situations such as this, upslope clouds will continue to regenerate against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Winds aloft will become out of the northeast over the weekend. These northeasterly winds will blow right over the top of the valley, leaving all that moisture on the valley floor untouched. Even so, upper 20s and lower 30s are on the cold side of the forecast but deserve to be mentioned. At this point, we may actually get through to the end of the year with no major frost hurdles.
Next report: December 17