December 16, 2021
A cold front associated with the latest system to affect California is moving through Fresno County at this hour with a band of precipitation. Once the front goes through, dry weather will return along with colder temperatures. The air mass behind the front is quite cold. In fact, most locations on the valley floor probably will not reach 50 Friday afternoon. A ridge of upper level high pressure will build northeastward from its center off the northern California coast, building into the Pacific Northwest, ensuring dry weather will prevail. Dry weather can be expected Friday through Sunday.
As the high builds overhead and we enjoy the benefits of a soaking wet valley floor, no doubt areas of fog and low clouds will form during the overnight and early morning hours. From Monday through Christmas Day, a very unsettled pattern will develop as a deep, cold trough of low pressure redevelops along the west coast. This will allow more storms to roll through the trough and into California. Rain will be likely from time to time through the 26th interspersed with periods of dry weather. Even the two week model is indicating a high potential for precipitation off and on through New Year’s Day.
Forecast: Showers today, mainly this morning. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Look for a good chance of showers Monday through Christmas Day.
Short Term:
Madera 54/35/48/30/50 | Reedley 53/37/48/31/48 | Dinuba 53/36/49/31/50 |
Porterville 54/34/49/31/47 | Lindsay 54/34/49/30/50 | Delano 53/34/48/31/48 |
Bakersfield 54/41/50/35/51 | Taft 54/43/47/39/51 | Arvin 54/40/47/38/51 |
Lamont 53/40/48/34/48 | Pixley 53/34/48/30/49 | Tulare 52/34/48/30/49 |
Woodlake 53/38/49/31/50 | Hanford 53/36/49/31/50 | Orosi 53/35/49/30/49 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Increasing clouds 30/51 |
Monday
Showers likely 32/55 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 34/56 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 39/57 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 40/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 23 through December 29: Central California has the greatest risk of above average precipitation of any location in the lower 48. The flow aloft during this time frame will be generally out of the northwest, so expect above average temperatures to continue.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH through this evening. Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: There is a good chance of rain this morning throughout the San Joaquin Valley. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast during the course of the day with dry weather from tonight through at least Sunday. Models are indicating a very unsettled period from Monday through much of next week. A large trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Alaska southeastward into California. Waves of low pressure will move through the trough from time to time with a good chance of showers at any time for all of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. However, riverbottom and unprotected sink hole situations could possible dip into the lower 30s. I do look for widespread upper 20s and lower 30s Saturday and Sunday mornings, assuming the cloud deck mixes out. This is by no means a hard freeze situation, but those frost pockets out there could see low 20s for short durations.
Next week will be unsettled. However, any day with clear skies for several hours could potentially see temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/48% Porterville, 100%/53%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .31, Parlier .19, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .21, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 56, Parlier 53, Arvin, .54, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 50, Delano 46 . *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37. Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 648 -67 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 3.27 +or +.1.11. Monthly .1.70. +.97
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, or 2.07 or +82. Month to date 1.12 or +.66
Average Temperature this month: 48.1 +.1.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 183, Parlier, 247 , Arvin, 246, Belridge, 265 , Shafter, 259 , Stratford, 275, Delano, 256 , Porterville, 286
Sunrise. 7:06, Sunset, 4:45, hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 54 / 47 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 52 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 51 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 50 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 51 / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 54 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON M M M M M M 13.45
MODESTO M M M M M M 12.27
MERCED 0.80 3.52 145 1.91 79 2.43 11.80
MADERA M 0.93 44 0.55 26 2.12 10.79
FRESNO 1.03 3.27 156 1.07 51 2.10 10.99
HANFORD 0.87 2.48 157 0.49 31 1.58 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.90 2.00 165 0.40 33 1.21 6.36
BISHOP 1.35 2.62 301 0.01 1 0.87 4.84
SALINAS 1.25 4.97 179 0.66 24 2.77 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 1.13 3.53 145 0.30 12 2.43 13.32
Next report: December 16 PM