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Forecast

December 20, 2021/pm report

December 20, 2021

This may go down as one of the coldest daytime highs in several  years. As of midday, Porterville, Hanford, and Fresno were reporting a bone chilling 39 degrees while Lemoore came in at 40, Madera 42, and Visalia just 37. The low overcast is completely locked in and is showing no signs of giving way. Above the fog deck, satellite imagery shows higher level clouds moving in overhead ahead of a weather change evolving over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the form of a large low pressure system located roughly 600 miles off the northern and central California coast. Rain is spreading over the northwest California coast, however the eastward movement has slowed down. This is pretty normal for winter storms. Most of the valley will probably not see rain until Wednesday though it may reach Fresno County Tuesday night.

 

Rain will spread in from the west Wednesday. There should be a notable rain shadow long the west side of the valley and over Kern County with the usual lifting effect along the Sierra Nevada. Heavy amounts of precipitation can be expected there along with higher elevation snow.

 

This first system is mild and has a strong pineapple connection so snow levels will rise to 7,000 to 8,000 feet. That will quickly end Christmas Eve as snow levels by Christmas Day will drop down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Santa will be dealing with a lot of snow in central California, making him feel right at home. Rudolph will need to carry a spare bulb to be able to traverse the storminess.

 

Models still show on and off storminess in central California between Christmas and New Year’s, though some projections are now showing wider gaps between storms.

 

Forecast: Fog and low clouds tonight and Tuesday morning. The low clouds will begin to disperse Tuesday afternoon, revealing higher clouds above. A chance of showers late Tuesday night as far south as Fresno with periods of rain Wednesday through Monday interspersed with periods of dry weather.

                                                          

Short Term:                                                     

Lows tonight will chill into the low to mid 30s. Highs Tuesday will bounce back into the mid to upper 50s. lows Tuesday night will cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Highs Wednesday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

 

Wind: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH at times Wednesday through Thursday.

 

Rain: It will be Wednesday before most locations see any precipitation as that off shore system has slowed down. Expect periods of rain beginning Wednesday and lasting through Monday. Models are now more mixed on the pattern from Monday through New Year’s Day. Since we’ve had several days of modeling indicating the continuation of a wet pattern, I’ll go with that forecast for now. It still appears the east side of the valley north of Kern County will record between 1 and 2 inches between Wednesday and Monday. The west side and Kern County will be dealing with the usual rain shadow so upwards of .25 can be expected there.

Frost: Even though this is one of the coldest afternoons we’ve had in years, I do not look for below freezing temperatures tonight. The same layer of insulating pea soup that kept us cold today will keep temperatures at acceptable levels tonight. Today is a classic example of why the valley is such an ideal place to grow citrus.

 

Next report: December 21