December 20, 2021
The southern portion of the valley is socked in by dense fog. All reporting stations are reporting ¼ visibility or less. From Fresno north, it’s a low overcast based at just 300 feet at Fresno and 500 feet at Madera. It’s doubtful it will burn off today as high clouds are now moving in overhead. These are precursors to our active weather pattern, set to start Tuesday night. Upper level high pressure is shifting southward and eastward while a large low pressure system lurks off the northern California coast. Satellite imagery shows a large swath of moisture moving underneath the low, headed for northern California. This pineapple connection will move slowly southward into central California Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday.
This first low will be reinforced by a second, colder system with origins in the Gulf of Alaska. Snow levels, which are currently about 8,000 feet, should plummet to about 3,000 feet Christmas Day. If you’re headed to the mountains for the holidays, or to southern California, heavy snow will be the rule this weekend. Models continue to show a broad expanse of low pressure over and off the west coast through New Year’s with episodes of rain in the valley and snow in the mountains.
Forecast: Low overcast and fog today with a chance of local afternoon clearing. Increasing clouds tonight above the low cloud deck. Mostly cloudy Tuesday with rain spreading down to Fresno County late Tuesday night. Rain at times Wednesday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/37/57/39/60 | Reedley 48/39/56/39/59 | Dinuba 47/35/56/39/58 |
| Porterville 49/37/56/38/61 | Lindsay 49/34/57/39/60 | Delano 49/35/58/40/61 |
| Bakersfield 52/40/59/43/62 | Taft 54/43/59/46/60 | Arvin 51/38/59/42/62 |
| Lamont 52/38/59/39/61 | Pixley 48/38/56/39/59 | Tulare 47/37/58/38/61 |
| Woodlake 47/34/56/39/59 | Hanford 48/37/57/39/60 | Orosi 47/35/56/39/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Periods of rain 45/57 |
Christmas Eve
Periods of rain 48/55 |
Christmas
Periods of rain 43/64 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 37/56 |
Monday
Periods of rain 42/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 26 through January 1: This model is reverting back to a colder and wet weather pattern so the chance of precipitation will remain high during this period with below average temperatures continuing.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through tonight with periosd of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH at times Wednesday through Thursday.
Rain: More often than not, when a major winter storm is knocking on the door, it slows down and this will be the case with the incoming system. Rain will probably reach Fresno late Tuesday night, spreading over the rest of the valley Wednesday. This first low pressure system will get some extra juice from a pineapple connection moving inland Wednesday and Thursday. the fact that all this energy is coming in from the west/southwest means a rain shadow will develop to our west and south, lowering potential there. However, the opposite will be true on the east side as the air is lifted by the Sierra Nevada and wrung out. By and large, there will be episodes of precipitation from late Tuesday night through at least the next week, possibly all the way through to New Year’s. over the next five days, rainfall amounts north of Kern County along the east side should be between 1 and 2 inches, upwards to .50 along the west side and .25 to .33 for the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost: There are two layers of clouds. Of course, the first is the low clouds and fog. The second is an increasing amount of higher clouds. This will keep temperatures above freezing through at least the next 4 to 5 days. A colder storm will arrive during the Christmas weekend, lowering snow levels. Active weather will still keep readings above freezing. Active weather will keep temperatures above freezing possibly through the end of the year. Any night that does clear could see temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/80% Porterville, 100%/59%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .19, Parlier .17, Arvin .29, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .16, Delano .20. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 52, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 49, Delano 45 . *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 70/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 730 -64 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 3.34 +or +.94. Monthly .1.77. +.80
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, or 2.07 or +67. Month to date 1.12 or +.51
Average Temperature this month: 47.3 +0.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 222, Parlier, 294 , Arvin, 421, Belridge, 321 , Shafter, 300 , Stratford, 333, Delano, 301 , Porterville, 333
Sunrise. 7:08, Sunset, 4:46, hours of daylight, 9:38
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 45 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 47 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 52 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 47 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 6.40 182 1.70 48 3.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 5.97 206 1.45 50 2.90 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.71 135 2.10 76 2.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.18 49 0.69 29 2.41 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 3.34 139 1.08 45 2.40 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 2.64 146 0.49 27 1.81 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.07 148 0.40 29 1.40 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 2.67 275 0.01 1 0.97 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 4.59 148 0.83 27 3.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.49 139 0.30 12 2.51 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.55 129 0.31 11 2.75 13.32
Next report: December 20 PM