December 23, 2021
Thank the Lord for the pineapple connection. There is a very large swath of moisture stretching from northeast of Hawaii all the way into central California. Much of San Luis Obispo County is under an areal flood advisory. The rain shadow, of course, affects the south valley but even Bakersfield has recorded more than .25 today. Other storm totals are as follows: Fresno .64, Del Rey .75, Orange Cove .41,Parlier .38, Visalia .45, Tulare .36, Porterville .56, Stratford .36,Kettleman Hills .56, Belridge .26, Buttonwillow .17, Bakersfield .26, Taft .10, Mettler .08, and Arvin .06. all these totals are as of 1:00 this afternoon.
Doppler radar continues to indicate batches of moderate to heavy rain will move rapidly through the valley from southwest to northeast. This process will continue through the night with significant amounts of rain to continue, both on the valley floor and over the southern Sierra Nevada. The balloon sounding this morning over Oakland pegged the freezing level at 7,200 feet so I would imagine snow is falling down to roughly 6,500 feet or so.
Over the next 36 hours, the snow levels will dramatically drop as a cold low moves through the trough and into California. Snow levels will plummet down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet or so. Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler on the valley floor, as well.
Short term models continue to show on and off rain through the Christmas holiday weekend. There may be a lull in the action Christmas Day with more precipitation spreading over the region Sunday and Monday. The new two week model out this afternoon continues to indicate the storm door from the Gulf of Alaska will be wide open through January 5. This is definitely a pattern that will go a long way in alleviating drought conditions.
Forecast: Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, through Christmas Eve. A chance of showers Christmas Day. Periods of rain again Sunday through Thursday along with periods of dry weather.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/56/41//53 | Reedley 49/57/40/52 | Dinuba 48/56/41/53 |
| Porterville 50/57/40/52 | Lindsay 47/56/40/53 | Delano 50/57/42/52 |
| Bakersfield 53/57/44/53 | Taft 52/57/45/52 | Arvin 51/58/43/53 |
| Lamont 51/57/43/52 | Pixley 48/56/41/52 | Tulare 47/56/40/52 |
| Woodlake 47/55/40/52 | Hanford 48/56/41/52 | Orosi 48/55/40/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Saturday. Gusts to 27 are possible, mainly from Fresno County north.
Rain: Individual rainfall amounts are above in the summary. Needless to say, this pattern is a huge blessing for central California as a half inch has already been recorded, especially from Fresno County into Madera County. Satellite imagery shows a large swath of tropical moisture swinging in from northeast Hawaii. This plume of moisture comes on shore from roughly Santa Cruz on the north to Ventura on the south, keeping us blessedly in the bull’s eye. Periods of rain, locally heavy at times will continue through Christmas Eve then will possibly back off a bit Christmas Day. Along the east side of the valley, north of Kern County, could easily pick up another inch through Christmas Day. The west side is fighting a rain shadow, but even so another half inch is likely. Over the valley portion of Kern County, another quarter to third of an inch is possible.
We may have somewhat of a lull Christmas Day, but models show another surge of moisture m moving into central California beginning Sunday. As long as that huge trough of low pressure remains from the Gulf of Alaska to off shore southern California, expect periodic episodes of wet weather. The two week model shows wet weather all the way through January 5.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the next 5 to 7 days. A colder low pressure system is currently dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and will arrive tomorrow. Even though this system is quite cold, it’s ‘also very active. Colder locations will drop into the 30s but no frost is expected at this time.
Next report: Christmas Eve morning