December 26, 2021
Just in case you were planning a ski trip to Mammoth Mountain, winds are currently out of the west at 45 MPH, gusting to 75 MPH. How’s that for a pleasant day on the slopes. The freezing level over Oakland is now 3,400 feet and 3,900 feet over Vandenberg AFB. Doppler radar is picking up light showers over the Sierra Nevada with snow down to 2,500 feet or so. On the valley floor, the weather will be fairly tranquil today as we are between systems.
The next low to quickly move into California is now over Vancouver Island and will spread showers over the valley late tonight and Monday. Like its predecessor, it’s a very cold system with snow down to 2,000 feet or so in the foothills.
The final wave of low pressure will arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. model projections as far as precipitation is concerned, using Porterville as an example, indicates .64 of an inch between tonight and Tuesday and roughly .33 Thursday north of Kern County. It appears this wet pattern will come to an end after Thursday as upper level high pressure will begin to move in. our next challenge will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog over the weekend, possibly lasting through the day as early as Sunday.
The two week model, which stretches from the 2 through the 8, is holding onto the idea of above average precipitation, so we’ll see.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a small chance of showers, mainly near the foothills. Increasing cloudiness again this evening with rain becoming likely at times late tonight through Monday. A chance of showers Monday night. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. Showers likely late Wednesday into Thursday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/38/47/31/45 | Reedley 50/39/48/32/46 | Dinuba 49/38/47/31/45 |
| Porterville 50/40/47/32/44 | Lindsay 50/38/47/30/45 | Delano 51/38/48/32/46 |
| Bakersfield 50/39/48/36/45 | Taft 47/37/44/34/43 | Arvin 51/39/48/33/44 |
| Lamont 50/38/48/36/42 | Pixley 50/39/47/32/45 | Tulare 49/38/47/31/45 |
| Woodlake 50/37/47/31/43 | Hanford 51/39/47/33/45 | Orosi 49/37/47/31/45 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
PM rain 31/46 |
Thursday
Showers likely 37/48 |
Friday
Patchy fog 34/48 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 31/48 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 31/49 |
Two Week Outlook: December 2through January 8: Models are quite mixed for this time frame, ranging from very wet to very dry. They all have one thing in common, however, and that is temperatures will be well below average.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH today, becoming out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH tonight through Monday. Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH Monday night through Wednesday.
Rain: Only a minimal chance of rain exists today, generally up against the foothills. Periods of rain will again become likely later tonight through Monday with a chance of showers Monday night. This storm could potentially dump anywhere from .50 to .66 over the valley floor. Since the winds will be out of the northwest aloft, the rain shadow effect will not be there so the west side and Kern County could pick up roughly the same amounts. There will be a short period of dry weather late Monday night through Tuesday night. The last wave of low pressure will move through Thursday with more showers. This system looks a bit more dry than previous evets. Even so, another ,33 or so is possible, a dry pattern will begin Friday, lasting through the New Year’s weekend and into nest week. Most of the models are leaning towards dry conditions for the first week in January, however the two week model still insists on above average rainfall.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. Some areas could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s Tuesday morning as we find ourselves between storms. The air mass associated with these systems is quite cold so if your location happens to observe several hours of clear skies Monday night/Tuesday morning, upper 20s and lower 30s would be possible. That same rule of thumb could apply for Wednesday morning, as well, although it’s possible incoming clouds could keep temperatures up. Thursday and possibly Friday mornings will be above freezing due to the last system moving through. A dry pattern will be in place over the weekend. It’s quite possible that a cold layer of damp air will be trapped on the valley floor so upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible. However, it’s possible upslope clouds will continue to re-generate against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. It’s also possible widespread fog and low clouds could easily form, keeping temperatures in the 30s. as a general rule of thumb, if your location sees several hours of clearing on any specified night, those threshold temperatures could be observed.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/49% Porterville, 100%/57%. Dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .18, Parlier .15, Arvin .18, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .15, Delano .18. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 51, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 54/36. Record Temperatures: 70/19
Heating Degree Days This Season. 836 -78 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 4.70 or +1.89. Monthly 3.13 +1.75
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.34 or +1.70. Month to date 2.39 or +1.54
Average Temperature this month: 47.2, +1.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 271, Parlier, 351 , Arvin, 350, Belridge, 353 ,Shafter, 353 , Stratford, 395 , Delano, 360 , Porterville, 381 `
Sunrise. 7:02, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:40
NA=missing
:Yesterdays’ Weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 37 / 0.53 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 38 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 44 / 0.16 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 40 / 0.27 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 38 / 0.09 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 43 / 0.07 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 58 / 44 / 0.21 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : M / M / M /
Rainfall Stats:
STOCKTON 0.25 7.57 189 1.72 43 4.01 13.45
MODESTO 0.25 7.20 214 1.45 43 3.36 12.27
MERCED 0.30 4.76 151 2.10 67 3.15 11.80
MADERA T M M 0.70 25 2.80 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 4.54 162 1.08 38 2.81 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 3.88 183 0.49 23 2.12 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.27 199 0.40 24 1.64 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.14 370 0.01 1 1.12 4.84
SALINAS 0.11 5.16 145 0.83 23 3.55 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.08 5.58 190 0.30 10 2.94 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 5.11 159 0.31 10 3.21 13.32
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