December 26, 2021
Even though it’s a very nice day out there this afternoon, the next round of precipitation is knocking at our door. Rain has spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line as of 1:00pm. The main area of low pressure is centered just west of Portland, Oregon this afternoon where snow is falling down to sea level throughout Washington and Oregon. The pool of cold, unstable air will settle over central California tonight and Monday with periods of rain and snow down to 2,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. This system has decent dynamics and has the potential of adding another half to three-quarters of an inch of rain on the valley floor with roughly two to three times that along the Sierra Nevada and over the foothills. Yet another two to four feet of new snow will accumulate over the higher elevations. The low will move into Nevada later Tuesday night, ending precipitation. It will be followed by a broad area of low pressure with weak ripples of low pressure moving through the trough, resulting in a chance of light showers again late Wednesday night through Friday.
Over the weekend, upper level high pressure will finally build in from the west for what will be several days of dry weather. The main challenge will be how quickly fog takes over as a westerly flow moves warmer air in aloft.
Medium range models show another round of precipitation possibly around the third or fourth of January. Like the current pattern, if this model has any degree of accuracy, this storm will originate in the Gulf of Alaska.
Forecast: Increasing clouds this evening with periods of rain after midnight, continuing Monday, possibly heavy at times. Showers tapering off Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Increasing clouds Wednesday night with a chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers Thursday through Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night. Mostly clear Saturday through Monday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/48/34/44 | Reedley 39/49/35/45 | Dinuba 38/49/36/46 |
| Porterville 38/49/36/47 | Lindsay 37/49/35/46 | Delano 40/49/35/47 |
| Bakersfield 39/49/38/45 | Taft 36/45/34/44 | Arvin 39/48/37/45 |
| Lamont 39/49/36/46 | Pixley 38/49/36/46 | Tulare 37/48/35/46 |
| Woodlake 38/49/36/47 | Hanford 39/48/37/45 | Orosi 38/49/35/46 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be generally light and variable.
Rain: Even though this next storm is very cold, modeling does show it has strong dynamics. We should record anywhere from a half inch to even as much as three-quarters of an inch from tonight through tomorrow night. Dry weather will return Tuesday through much of Wednesday then a series of weak ripples of cold low pressure will move through late Wednesday night through Friday with a chance of light shows at any given time. Amounts this time will be fairly light. Dry weather will begin New Year’s Day and will last through at least the first couple of days of January. Models indicate now that a return to a cold wet pattern will set up about January third or fourth.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The next real chance of first will arrive Saturday morning as this cold, wet pattern draws to a close. As warmer air moves in aloft and caps the valley, a chilly air mass will linger on the valley floor. If we observe clear skies Saturday through Tuesday, upper 20s to lower 30s will be possible, however upslope clouds may bank up against the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 30s, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. It’s also possible that fog and low clouds could become widespread. Fortunately, this is not a freeze pattern. It could, though, bring some beneficial upper 20s to lower 30s.
Next report: December 27