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December 27, 2021/report

December 27, 2021

Precipitation has spread down the Sierra Nevada to Lake Isabella. Rain has spread over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley and will encompass the remainder of the valley as the day wears on. A rain shadow has developed along the west side, but even there light precipitation will begin shortly. Models are quite interesting for tonight and again for Wednesday night. The air mass behind this system is very cold. There are models showing the snow level dropping to 1,000 feet. Theoretically, this would allow a few snow flakes to reach the valley floor. However, the latest balloon sounding over Oakland this morning pegs the freezing level at 4,400 feet, so I’ll keep snow out of the forecast.


The current storm has strong dynamics so decent amounts of precipitation are expected, especially up and down the Sierra Nevada where another two feet or so will accumulate on top of the already large snow pack. The rain will taper off into showers this evening with a short slot of dry weather later tonight through Tuesday.


An even colder storm will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Wednesday, lasting at times into Friday as weak disturbances move through the main trough. These systems will keep the snow level down into the lower foothills. It’ll be fun to look westward and see snow on the Coast Range.


Over the past few days, models have indicated high pressure will build in over the weekend and that still holds true this morning. The main challenge will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog. A layer of cold air will become trapped on the valley floor for possible sub freezing temperatures beginning Saturday morning. More on that in the frost discussion below.


Medium range models have been amazingly consistent in indicating a cold trough of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California about the fourth with periodic precipitation between January fourth and eighth.


Forecast: Rain today. Showers this evening then becoming mostly cloudy later tonight and Tuesday. Periods of light rain Tuesday night and at times through Friday with very low snow levels in the foothills. Mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.


Short Term:                                                     

Madera 48/36/46/35/46 Reedley 49/35/45/36/46 Dinuba 47/34/47/35/45
Porterville 49/35/45/34/46 Lindsay 48/34/47/35/45 Delano 49/35/45/35/47
Bakersfield 50/36/46/36/48 Taft 47/35/45/34/48 Arvin 50/36/46/36/48
Lamont 48/37/45/34/48 Pixley 49/36/46/36/47 Tulare 47/34/46/35/46
Woodlake 49/36/46/35/45 Hanford 49/37/44/36/45 Orosi 48/34/46/34/46


Seven Day Forecast:


Chance of showers



Chance of showers



Patchy fog/mostly clear



AM fog/PM sun



AM fog/PM sun



Two Week Outlook:  January 2through January 8:  Models are quite mixed for this time frame, ranging from very wet to very dry. They all have one thing in common, however, and that is temperatures will be well below average.


December, January, February: If this model is to be believed at all, temperatures will be marginally above average over central California. This model also depicts the main storm track continuing into the Pacific Northwest with somewhat below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California.


Wind Discussion:  Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts today. Winds tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to  15 MPH, diminishing slowly after midnight. Winds Tuesday will be mainly light, becoming out of the southeast again at 5 to 12 MPH Tuesday night and at times through Thursday.


Rain:  Doppler radar at this hour shows a solid area of rain over north-central California, moving down the valley at this hour. The rain will turn to showers this evening, then end. Tuesday will be dry with more precipitation in the form of light showers moving down the valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers Thursday night through Friday as that low center develops off the northern California coast and slides southward to our west. It appears the current storm north of Kern County along the east side has the potential of dropping anywhere from .33 to .50 with near .25 along the west side and upwards to .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. The precipitation Tuesday night through Friday will be generally light. Expect dry weather Friday night and through the third of January. Models are showing another active pattern beginning January 4 and lasting possibly through January 8.

Frost: An active pattern through Friday will keep temperatures in the 30s. If for whatever reason skies open up and clear for several hours, then upper 20s to lower 30s would be possible, but that appears unlikely at this time. That may change, however, over the weekend as cold high pressure caps the valley with a layer of cold, damp air on the valley floor. We could potentially see temperatures down to 26 to 28 in those traditionally cold frost pockets with flat terrain ranging from 29 to 33. It’s also possible a good bank of lower level clouds may develop along the Tehachapi and the southern Sierra Nevada, keeping temperatures in the 30s. We cannot rule out our old friend, fog, which could potentially become widespread. Even though this is a very cold pattern, fortunately all the weather tools have been working in our favor to maintain good conditions and it appears that will continue.


Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/53%  Porterville, 100%/57%.  Dew points:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 40%.


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .23, Parlier .15, Arvin .19, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .15, Delano .20. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 51, Arvin, .52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano 45. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 54/36.  Record Temperatures: 72/23

Heating Degree Days This Season.  856  -78 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  4.70 or +1.82.  Monthly  3.13  +1.68

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.34 or  +1.66.  Month to date  2.39 or +1.50

Average Temperature this month: 47.1, +1.1 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 285, Parlier, 370 ,  Arvin, 359, Belridge,  391  ,Shafter, 368 , Stratford, 417 , Delano, 380 , Porterville, 397 `

Sunrise. 7:02, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:40



:Yesterdays Weather

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  53 /  44 /  0.07 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  54 /  44 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  54 /  44 /     T /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  55 /  43 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  55 /  43 /     T /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  54 /  38 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  54 /  42 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :   M /   M /     M /


  • Rainfall Stats: 24h    season  %l    l year   %          ave. year
  • STOCKTON 01    7.72   189    1.83    45     4.09    13.45
  • MODESTO T    51   218    1.50    44     3.44    12.27
  • MERCED 00    4.99   155    2.15    67     3.22    11.80
  • MADERA 00       M     M       M     M     2.86    10.79
  • FRESNO T    70   163    1.11    39     2.88    10.99
  • HANFORD 00    4.15   191    0.51    24     2.17     8.13
  • BAKERSFIELD 00    3.34   199    0.40    24     1.68     6.36
  • BISHOP 01    4.48   386    0.01     1     1.16     4.84
  • SALINAS              T    43   150    0.85    23     3.62    12.58
  • PASO ROBLES 01    6.17   205    0.34    11     3.01    12.15
  • SANTA MARIA                      T    5.69   173    0.31     9     3.29    13.32



Next report: December 27 pm