December 29, 2021
The center of circulation of our latest cold upper level low is roughly about 250 miles off the central coast. The circulation pattern around the low continues to push in bands of light showers from southwest to northeast across the valley. By Thursday morning, the low will be southwest of Vandenberg, which is far enough away to keep showers out of the forecast for Thursday.
The next system upstream is in western Canada. Models indicate this system, which is moisture starved, will dive into Nevada Thursday night and Friday. There will be a chance of light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada but measurable precipitation on the valley floor now appears unlikely. Behind this system, upper level high pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday. We will be on the wester flank of the high, putting us under a north/northwest flow aloft, maintaining below average temperatures through Saturday.
The coverage of upslope clouds and valley fog could result in near average temperatures again Monday. The high will give way Monday as a large area of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to northern California. The upper winds will be out of the west/southwest, spreading another round of precipitation over California possibly as early as late Monday night. Expect periods of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.
Each set of model runs now indicate a drier pattern setting up shop. It appears upper level high pressure will begin to govern the eastern Pacific beginning Thursday of next week. The main challenge late next week will be fog and low cloud coverage and their respective affect on temperatures.
Forecast: Periods of light showers tonight. Mostly cloudy Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon leading to a chance of showers Monday night. Periods of rain Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 38/50/39/48 | Reedley 40/50/37/48 | Dinuba 37/49/37/48 |
| Porterville 39/51/39/48 | Lindsay 37/51/36/47 | Delano 40/50/37/49 |
| Bakersfield 41/49/40/48 | Taft 38/48/37/48 | Arvin 40/51/39/48 |
| Lamont 39/50/38/49 | Pixley 39/50/37/48 | Tulare 39/49/37/49 |
| Woodlake 38/49/37/48 | Hanford 41/51/39/48 | Orosi 38/48/36/48 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH at times through Friday. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Bands of light showers will continue to rotate across the valley from southwest to northeast tonight. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than .10 at most locations. Dry weather will return Thursday and conditions will likely remain dry until the following Monday as the next storm moves southward into the Great Basin. The next round of precipitation could begin as early as Monday night, but it appears Tuesday and Wednesday will see periods of showers at times, ending Wednesday night. Medium range models now point to drier weather beginning next Thursday. all in all, this has been a pretty good run, especially by the standards of recent years. Places such as Fresno have recorded well over 3 inches of rain and nearly 2.50 inches in Bakersfield.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. A pool of relatively cold air will settle onto the valley floor Saturday through Monday. The usual tools of the trade will be necessary to figure out Mother Nature and anticipated temperatures. There are two possible scenarios for Saturday through Monday. Scenario 1 depicts generally clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s with possibly some mid 20s in the river bottom type locations. Scenario 2 is that generous amounts of cloud cover could develop due to upsloping against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. This particular solution would see lows in the 30s at most locations. My feeling is we will probably see a combination of both with the usual variances from night to night. Expect above freezing temperatures to return Tuesday morning as clouds again take over from the next incoming system.
Next report: December 30