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Forecast

January 23, 2022/report

January 23, 2022

The fog is less widespread this morning as dewpoints are anywhere from 2 to 10 degrees lower then 24 hours ago. Temperatures are off anywhere from 1 to 9 degrees. Most of the fog is up at Merced County northward into Stanislaus County. We have another 7 days or so of this stagnant pattern. Three features govern the weather over north America. The first is an arctic low located over Hudson Bay, Canada. Second is a high off the northern California coast stretching  northward into western Canada. And the third is a weak upper low over Sonora, Mexico. The flow both at the surface and aloft is off shore. The current altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.47 inches of mercury while the reading at LAX is 30.12. this maintains a weak Santa Ana wind configuration over southern California but does not affect the valley’s weather.

 

I’m  still looking at the time frame from February 2 through the 5 for our next possibility of rain as the high  finally breaks down, forming a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest, sagging into northern California.

 

Forecast: Outside of areas of night and morning fog and low clouds and occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and hazy through next Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 64/34/62/35/62 Reedley 63/33/63/34/61 Dinuba 62/32/62/33/61
Porterville 65/33/64/33/62 Lindsay 64/31/63/32/62 Delano 65/34/65/36/62
Bakersfield 65/40/64/41/62 Taft 63/45/62/44/61 Arvin 65/35/65/34/64
Lamont 64/34/63/34/63 Pixley 64/32/63/32/63 Tulare 63/31/63/32/63
Woodlake 63/32/62/32/61 Hanford 64/33/62/33/61 Orosi 63/32/63/32/62

 

Seven Forecast:

Wednesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

32/65

Thursday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

34/67

Friday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

35/66

Saturday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

37/65

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

37/63

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  January 28 through February   This model finally breaks down the blocking ridge of high pressure, allowing storms to return to the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This model is suggesting above average precipitation with below average temperatures.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain:  It appears more and more likely we will be completely dry at most locations for the month of January. Models the past few days have been trending towards the breakdown of the high after the first of February with a chance of rain around the 3 or 4 or so.  Currently, we’ll keep the forecast dry although there are some encouraging signs out there.

 

Frost: Dew points are anywhere from 2 to 10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago with a spattering of low 30s out there. Most locations the next few nights will range anywhere from 32 to 39. However, the usual low river bottom type locations will dip into the lower 30s. there is still absolutely nothing suggesting a particularly cold weather pattern on the horizon.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/33%  Porterville, 100%/48%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .46, Parlier .37, Arvin 43, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .39, Delano .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 47. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 56/38.  Record Temperatures: 72/25

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1124 -113, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or +.51.  Monthly  .T -1.58

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  +.81. Month to date  .01 -.85

Average Temperature this month: 48.0, +1.6 Taken 84NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 582, Parlier, 695,  Arvin, 580, Belridge, 640, Shafter, 618, Stratford, 712, Delano, 685, Porterville, 706 courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 7:06, Sunset, 5:16, hours of daylight, 10:08

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  59 /  34 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  61 /  34 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  63 /  39 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  62 /  34 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  61 /  33 /     T /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  63 /  41 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  63 /  38 /     T /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  65 /  36 /  0.00 /

 

 

CLIMATE STATION            TOTAL    2022     PON  2021     PON  NORMAL   NORMAL

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21   128    2.75    43     6.41    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   143    1.63    29     5.68    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85   111    2.52    48     5.29    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    0.94    20     4.66    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21   109    1.55    32     4.80    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61   127    0.85    23     3.63     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56   129    0.91    33     2.75     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   205    0.21    10     2.20     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11   105    1.19    20     5.84    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.34   136    0.99    18     5.40    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26   110    1.90    33     5.70    13.32

Next report: January 22 PM