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Forecast

January 25, 2022/afternoon report

January 25, 2022

Temperatures at midday are running 2 to 4 degrees cooler at most locations than 24 hours ago. This is due to a benign wave of low pressure moving through the Great Basin which has weakened pressure aloft just a tad. That will begin to reverse Wednesday as upper level high pressure which has been hanging off the Pacific coast begins to move eastward over California. The combination of patchy frost and areas of dense fog will continue through Friday night. The only real change I see this afternoon is the potential for rain during the first week in February. Some models are now moving the main storm track a bit further east with systems diving into the Pacific Northwest and then into the Great Basin, reducing the chance of rain for California. Not to be deterred, however, it’s fairly common for modeling information to zig zag back and forth this far out. At the very least, there should be some activity over the mountains with a colder pattern for the valley floor as a high builds into the Gulf of Alaska, generating a north/northwest flow beginning Monday and lasting through next Thursday. Unfortunately, behind this system another blocking ridge will set up.

 

Forecast: Outside of areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 33/64/34/65 Reedley 32/64/34/65 Dinuba 32/63/33/64
Porterville 33/66/33/67 Lindsay 31/64/32/65 Delano 34/66/34/67
Bakersfield 40/67/41/65 Taft 43/64/43/63 Arvin 35/66/35/67
Lamont 34/66/34/67 Pixley 32/65/33/65 Tulare 31/64/32/64
Woodlake 32/66/33/65 Hanford 33/65/34/65 Orosi 31/64/33/64

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through the weekend. I’m a  bit less encouraged about the prospect of rain for the first week in February. Most previous model runs were indicating a straight shot of low pressure from British Columbia to southern California. Now, they show the storm track moving more into the Great Basin. This will at least give the Sierra a chance of precipitation, but lowers the chance for  the valley floor. Still, it’s quite common for models to shift back and forth. At the very least, it will turn colder.

 

Frost: Temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday’s values at midday. Dew points are slightly higher but not enough to really change the outlook for tonight’s forecast. Again, like previous nights, low spots like river bottoms will potentially drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for short durations with the vast majority of real estate remaining in the low to mid 30s. a pattern shift will occur the first week of February. For now, it would appear a colder, north/northwest flow will develop along the eastern side of high pressure off the Pacific coast. For now, it doesn’t look like a severe freeze threat and at any rate, we’re talking from the fifth of February and beyond. That’s a lifetime in the world of weather and much could change.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

33

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

30

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

31

Famoso

33

Madera

33

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

33

Edison

Af

Maricopa

33

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: January 26