February 12, 2022
Two factors are the main contributors to the unbelievable temperatures on the valley floor this afternoon. By the time the afternoon is over, some locations in Kern County will record the warmest temperatures ever for this early in the season. At 1:00pm, Bakersfield was already reporting 81 with Porterville at 79. The Kern River Powerhouse was reporting a June-like reading of 85. Tomorrow will also be unseasonably warm, but will back off a bit from today’s readings. Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the central coast. surface high pressure remains over the Great Basin. This has cranked up the Santa Ana winds which, in part, are responsible for this afternoon’s readings. Models show a low pressure system just west of the Oregon coast Monday evening with the main dynamics moving into western Nevada Tuesday. Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada, but the trend we saw yesterday continues today with precipitation mainly from the Sierra Nevada eastward and only a very small chance of rain for the valley floor. Temperatures will plummet into the mid 70s Tuesday and the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday. Local frost will be possible Wednesday through Friday morning. More on this below. A large dome of high pressure will build along the Pacific coast beginning Wednesday with dry weather and a warming trend by the middle part of next week. Nothing like the unusual warmth we’re experiencing today is expected.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and hazy conditions, it will be mostly clear through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a small chance of scattered light showers Tuesday. Highest risk will be near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/79/42/74 | Reedley 40/78/41/75 | Dinuba 39/78/41/74 |
| Porterville 39/80/41/76 | Lindsay 39/78/41/76 | Delano 42/80/42/75 |
| Bakersfield 51/81/50/79 | Taft 56/79/55/76 | Arvin 45/82/46/76 |
| Lamont 44/81/45/77 | Pixley 40/80/42/77 | Tulare 39/78/41/76 |
| Woodlake 39/79/40/75 | Hanford 41/80/42/77 | Orosi 39/79/41/75 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions. It’s possible some locally gusty Santa Ana winds could work their way into the extreme southeast corner of the valley. Winds will increase throughout the growing area late Monday through Tuesday evening, mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side. Local areas of blowing dust will be possible. Winds will be out of the northwest Wednesday at 8 to 15 MPH, becoming light to near calm by Wednesday night.
Rain: Models this afternoon are depicting the trend that began yesterday which is showing the main dynamics of this weather system moving into western Nevada just east of the Sierra Nevada. Light showers are still likely over the Sierra Nevada, but unlikely on the valley floor. Still, it’s a close enough call to keep a small possibility of showers in the forecast for Tuesday. This system will race into the Four Corners region by Wednesday morning. High pressure will guarantee dry weather for the following week.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. From Wednesday through Friday of next week, low to mid 30s will be likely as a cold air mass spreads into California. Upper 20s will be possible in dry, river bottom type terrain, but locally elsewhere. Mid 20s are unlikely this coming week. The two week outlook out this afternoon indicates a cold trough of low pressure will be along the west coast between the 19 and 25 for below average temperatures. We’ll find out down the road if this possibility continues.
Next report: February 13