Today is the final day of the unusually warm spring weather we’ve enjoyed recently. The blocking ridge is finally showing signs of breaking down in response to a rather compact upper low which, this morning, is centered over Oregon. Freezing levels are finally beginning to drop as the balloon sounding above Oakland this morning showed a freezing level of 11,300 feet. That will drop to below 5,000 feet over the next 36 hours. Today will be rather tranquil. Gusty winds out of the west to northwest will begin tonight, possibly gusting in excess of 30 MPH in some areas with blowing dust over freshly plowed fields. We’ll still keep a small chance of scattered light showers in the forecast, mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills where lift is occurring. If we do see rain, expect no more than about .15 of an inch at any given location. the main impact of this storm will be much cooler temperatures along with local frost beginning Wednesday morning. This is discussed in the frost summary below. The low will rapidly pull away off to the east and will be over the Four Corners region by Wednesday morning. The air mass in its wake will be chilly with highs only in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Upslope clouds will also develop against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada which will last well into the day Wednesday before a dry northerly flow begins to mix them out. A large high along the Pacific coast will begin to slowly push eastward Thursday and through the weekend for dry weather along with a warming trend.. models for about a week from now are looking more interesting. A broad trough of low pressure will begin to take over. Some models are suggesting a chance of showers this weekend and into the early part of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a small chance of scattered light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/42/58/32/63 | Reedley 78/42/59/33/63 | Dinuba 77/41/58/31/62 |
| Porterville 79/42/59/31/62 | Lindsay 78/40/58/31/63 | Delano 79/43/59/34/63 |
| Bakersfield 78/48/56/38/61 | Taft 78/47/55/35/61 | Arvin 79/56/59/34/62 |
| Lamont 78/45/55/33/61 | Pixley 79/46/59/32/62 | Tulare 77/42/57/31/63 |
| Woodlake 78/43/58/32/62 | Hanford 78/44/59/33/63 | Orosi 78/41/57/31/63 |
Seven Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 33/63 |
Friday
Mostly clear 35/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 35/70 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 37/71 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 20 through February 26 This model looks completely different than in the recent past. A cold trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for below average temperatures and at least a chance at unsettled weather.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally light and variable today, increasing out of the west/northwest this evening at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts as strong as 35 MPH possible with areas of blowing dust over freshly plowed fields. Winds will continue out of the northwest Tuesday at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Decreasing by early Tuesday evening. Becoming light after midnight Tuesday. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be generally at or less than 8 mph and variable in nature with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the overnight hours.
Rain: We’ll keep a small chance of scattered light showers in the forecast after midnight tonight and lasting through Tuesday. The greatest risk will occur along the Sierra Nevada foothills, but even there the chance at any given location is small. Dry weather will return Tuesday night and continue for the remainder of the week. Some models are now suggesting the possibility of active weather beginning around Sunday or Monday of next week. We’ll see if the trend continues.
Frost: A .much colder air mass will invade the valley tonight and Tuesday. High temperatures will drop from the upper 70s today to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Wednesday morning will be chaotic, as conditions typically are behind cold fronts. The usual upslope clouds will no doubt form against the Tehachapi and the southern Sierra Nevada. And even though winds will have died off by then, will still be strong enough to be a player. Where skies clear and light to calm winds occur, widespread low to mid 30s will be the order of the day with upper 20s possible in river bottom type terrain. Hillsides will be above freezing. There will be more locations at or slightly above freezing due to lack of clouds and winds Thursday and Friday mornings. Both nights will see low spots in the upper 20s. moderation will finally begin over the weekend as daytime highs again begin to push 70s on Saturday. Long range models show a prolonged period of below average temperatures beginning early next week along with an increasing chance of showers, initially keeping lows above freezing.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/24% Porterville, 100%/%/24%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .72, Parlier .70, Arvin 81, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .70, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 52, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40. Record Temperatures: 79/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1646 -149, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or 1.04. Monthly .00 -.87
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.05. Monthly, .00 -.53
Average Temperature this month: 51.5 -+2.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 825, Parlier, 958, Arvin, 808, Belridge, 874, Shafter, 830 Stratford, 964, Delano, 945, Porterville, 971. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:47, Sunset, 5:39, hours of daylight, 10:51
Yesterday’s weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 80 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 81 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 81 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 81 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 82 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 79 / 45 / 0.00
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 83 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 99 6.86 82 8.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 110 6.35 85 7.43 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 85 5.90 85 6.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 19 6.14 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 83 5.11 82 6.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 100 3.05 66 4.62 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 99 1.81 50 3.61 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 158 1.61 56 2.85 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 79 4.67 60 7.73 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 101 5.96 82 7.26 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 81 6.08 79 7.73 13.32
Next report: February 14 PM