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Forecast

February 15, 2022/afternoon report

February 15, 2022

An area of light showers developed over western Fresno County at midday and has rapidly moved southward through King County. It’s currently spreading showers over Kern County. Light showers are also occurring over the Sierra Nevada foothills. As of the time of this writing, Madera, Fresno, and Tulare Counties were rain free. Gusty winds are blowing down the west side of the valley. The latest observation at Hanford pegged winds at 21 mph, gusting to 26. The Lemoore Naval Air Station was reporting sustained winds at 20 MPH. temperatures this afternoon are anywhere from 15 to 20 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and are only in the mid 50s. the center of circulation of a pool of cold air is currently over the south valley and will move into the Kern County mountains shortly. The main forecast challenge from this point on will be overnight low temperatures, which is discussed in the frost summary below. This storm is a fast mover. In fact, it will be moving into the Four Corners region Wednesday morning. Upper level high pressure along the Pacific coast will shift eastward over California beginning late Wednesday, continuing through Saturday night with a noticeable warming trend. The high will begin to collapse over northern California Sunday as a low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska dives southward into California. This system has some similarities to the current one but is larger and, for now, poses a greater possibility of dropping some precipitation. A chance of light showers is in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday of next week. It will be the type of system where some locations receive decent rainfall amounts while others record little to none. The new two week outlook doesn’t offer any hope for major storms as it calls for below average temperatures and below average precipitation.

 

Forecast: Light showers will be possible, mainly in Kern County, through early evening. Otherwise, it will be mostly to partly cloudy tonight through Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies Wednesday night through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday. increasing cloudiness Sunday night leading to a chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 33/62/33/68 Reedley 34/61/33/69 Dinuba 33/61/32/69
Porterville 36/63/32/68 Lindsay 34/61/31/69 Delano 37/63/33/68
Bakersfield 41/61/39/69 Taft 43/59/45/67 Arvin 38/62/33/69
Lamont 39/61/35/70 Pixley 35/62/34/69 Tulare 32/63/31/68
Woodlake 34/62/32/68 Hanford 34/63/33/69 Orosi 34/61/32/68

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will remain mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 possible through the evening hours. Winds will subside during the late evening hours, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be variable to no more than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain:  A nice batch of scattered light showers has moved into Kern County. These showers initially formed over western Fresno County around noon before racing southward. Showers will be possible into the early evening hours, mainly in Kern County, and possibly along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  They will come to an end this evening. Expect dry weather later tonight through Sunday. Another system out of the Gulf of Alaska will threaten precipitation Monday through Wednesday of next week. This storm is similar to the current event in one respect, and that is that it will not be carrying much water. It will be larger in scope, however, and will be a slow mover. Dry weather will return late Wednesday night and will last for several days thereafter.

 

Frost: Tonight’s conditions will be very chaotic, even though temperatures at this time are a good 13 to 20 degrees lower than yesterday. I do look for upslope clouds to continue to bank up against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. Cloud cover over Kern and Tulare Counties will keep most locations there above freezing. Elsewhere, a good deal of mixing will be taking place with widespread low to mid 30s. it’s possible dry river bed type terrain could briefly dip to 27 to 28 degrees, but only isolated pockets will see such readings. For Thursday and Friday mornings, temperatures will be more consistently cold with widespread low to mid 30s with low spots down to 27 to 28 for brief durations. Moderation will take place over the weekend.  

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: February 16