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February 15, 2022/report

February 15, 2022

The balloon sounding taken a couple of hours ago above Oakland tells quite a story. Yesterday at this time, the freezing level was near 11,300 feet. This morning, the freezing level has plummeted to 5,200 feet as a cold, compact upper low drops southward into California. By noon today, the center of circulation will be over Yosemite then over the Kern County mountains by sunset. Even though the moisture field around this storm is exceedingly low, the upper air dynamics are strong enough for snow showers up and down the Sierra Nevada with a small chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor. Many locations will not receive any measurable precipitation. By Wednesday morning, the center of circulation will already have zipped eastward to the Four Corners area as upper level high pressure along the Pacific coast begins to shift eastward over California. The biggest change today will be strong, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures. A surface flow developing over southern Nevada will be, in part, responsible for strong winds over the high  Sierra and strong, ,gusty winds along the west side of the valley. The off shore high will begin a warming trend Wednesday with above average temperatures over the weekend. Models are still trending towards at least a chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday as a low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Like the current low, this system appears to lack moisture, but at this juncture, we’ll take anything.


Forecast: Variable clouds today with a small chance of scattered light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Saturday night..  increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of showers Sunday night through Tuesday.


Short Term:                                                     

Madera 57/33/62/32/67 Reedley 58/33/61/32/68 Dinuba 57/32/63/34/68
Porterville 60/37/62/32/67 Lindsay 58/35/62/32/67 Delano 57/36/63/34/68
Bakersfield 57/41/71/41/66 Taft 55/36/60/39/68 Arvin 57/40/61/35/68
Lamont 57/41/61/41/68 Pixley 58/33/62/32/68 Tulare 57/33/62/31/67
Woodlake 57/34/62/32/67 Hanford 59/34/62/32/67 Orosi 58/32/62/31/68


Seven Forecast


Mostly clear



Mostly clear



Chance of showers



Chance of showers



Chance of showers



Two Week Outlook:  February 22 through February 29  This model looks completely different than in the recent past. A cold trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for below average temperatures and at least a chance at unsettled weather.


February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.


February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.


Wind Discussion: Winds will increase as the day wears on, peaking in the mid to late afternoon out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. Gusts exceeding 35 MPH cannot be ruled out, mainly along the west side. Expect blowing dust over freshly plowed fields. Winds will decrease during the late evening hours, becoming light after midnight. Winds Wednesday through Friday will generally be at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the overnight hours.


Rain: A cold upper low will be virtually right overhead this afternoon. This system, even though it has strong upper air dynamics, has a very limited moisture field. Despite this, light snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada with a minimal chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Most locations, however, will remain dry. Dry weather will return tonight through Saturday. Our next chance of showers will arrive Sunday as another moisture starved system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Unsettled weather will last through next Tuesday with dry weather returning Wednesday.


Frost: The freezing level this morning over Oakland dropped from 11,300 feet yesterday to 5,200 feet a few hours ago. Obviously, a much colder air mass is invading the valley with most locations not seeing the 60 degree mark today. Upslope clouds have already banked up the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. This will increase today with cloud cover over Kern and Tulare Counties tonight through Wednesday morning. The remainder of the valley will be mostly clear, however there will be a considerable amount of mixing in the atmosphere with most locations ranging in the low to mid 30s. it’s possible river bottom type terrain could drop down to 27 to 28 degrees or so. The inversion tonight will be fairly weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 5 degrees warmer. For Thursday and Friday mornings, any cloud cover will have evaporated and wind conditions won’t be much of a factor. The threshold of this air mass is low to mid 30s, however scattered low lying real estate could drop to 27 to 28 degrees for short durations. Moderation will begin over the weekend as daytime highs push the 70 degree mark and begin to drag overnight lows higher as well. Longer term models do not show critically cold weather, however below average temperatures will begin again next week as the nenxt system rolls out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California.


Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella














Tea Pot Dome














North bakersfield




Orange Cove




Lindcove Hillside


Sanger River Bottom


Root Creek


Venice Hill


















Holland Creek


Tivy Valley


Kite Road South


Kite Road North


AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 77%/24%  Porterville, 95%/%/30%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .75, Parlier .72, Arvin 85, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .72, Delano .74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 52, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 53, Delano 49. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 61/40.  Record Temperatures: 79/24

Heating Degree Days This Season.  162 -157, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or 1.10.  Monthly  .00 -.93

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  -.09. Monthly,  .00 -.57

Average Temperature this month: 52.6 -+2.6 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 832, Parlier, 970,  Arvin, 815, Belridge, 875, Shafter, 834 Stratford, 971, Delano, 955, Porterville, 986.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:46, Sunset, 5:40, hours of daylight, 10:53

Yesterday’s weather

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  74 /  42 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  76 /  45 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  77 /  48 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  77 /  48 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  80 /  45 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  80 /  46 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  77 /  49 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  79 /  44 /  0.00 /

IYK   : Inyokern AP     2455 :  75 /  58 /  0.00 /

MHV   : Mojave AP       2785 :  73 /  48 /  0.00 /



STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21    98    6.86    81     8.42    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   109    6.35    85     7.51    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85    84    5.90    84     6.99    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    1.19    19     6.21    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21    83    5.11    81     6.31    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61    99    3.05    65     4.68     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56    98    1.81    50     3.65     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   156    1.61    56     2.89     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11    78    4.67    60     7.81    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.34   100    5.96    81     7.35    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26    80    6.08    78     7.84    13.32

Next report: February 15 PM