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Forecast

February 18, 2022/report

Great news! John does not require surgery and to all intents and purposes is cancer free.  Thank you for your prayers and support over the past year. We know those prayers made a difference.

 

February 18, 2022

The bone dry conditions out there contribute to the wide differences in temperatures between daytime highs and overnight lows. Many locations this afternoon will reach 70 after overnight lows in the low to mid30s. the weekend ahead will be a pleasant one as a ridge of high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3 of the US. There’s a very weak upper low off the northern California coast which will move southward off shore. Other than some mid and high level clouds from this system, it will be of little consequence. The high will break down over the Pacific Northwest Sunday, allowing a cold low to race southward into the western US. Clouds will begin to increase Monday, leading to a minimal chance of  light showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The best dynamics with this system will be east of the Sierra Nevada. Models show the atmosphere to be dry from 5,000 to 18,000 feet, meaning the chance of showers will be low with the exception of the Sierra Nevada where light snow showers will fall over the higher elevations. Just behind this system will be a north/northeast flow which will transport very chilly air into the growing area. It’s beginning to look like widespread frost Wednesday through Friday of next week with local frost as early as Tuesday. More in the frost discussion below. Upper level high pressure will maintain dry weather beginning Wednesday night and for the next several days thereafter.

 

Forecast: other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Wednesday with a minimal chance of light showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 69/34/72/37/71 REEDLEY 71/33/73/35/71 Dinuba 69/32/72/35/72
Porterville 71/34/73/37/72 Lindsay 71/31/72/34/72 Delano 71/34/73/37/70
Bakersfield 71/42/73/44/72 Taft 68/51//69/52/69 Arvin 71/34/73/37/72
Lamont 71/35/72/37/71 Pixley 71/34/72/36/71 Tulare 70/32/71/35/71
Woodlake 70/33/72/35/71 Hanford 70/34/72/36/71 Orosi 69/32/73/35/71

 

Seven Forecast

Monday

Partly cloudy

36/71

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

35/61

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers

33/57

Thursday

Mostly clear

30/57

Friday

Mostly clear

29/61

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  February 25 through March 3: this model shows most of the country with below average temperatures. California is about the lone exception where an off shore ridge will result in above average temperatures with a very low chance of precipitation.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: Dry weather will continue through probably Monday now. A cold system from the Gulf of Alaska will move into the west Monday through Wednesday. Light snow showers will be likely along the Sierra Nevada, however the dynamics of this storm are such that only a minimal chance of showers will exist for the valley, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather will return by Wednesday night with dry weather for several days thereafter.

 

Frost: Exeter and Lindsay chilled down to 29 degrees as of 6:00am for the cold spots in the valley. Most other locations this morning were in the low to mid 30s. most locations will be above freezing tonight with the exception of the typical colder locations which will dip into the lower 30s. all locations will be above freezing Sunday morning as the air mass continues to moderate. It appears a bona fide spring frost may occur Wednesday through Friday of next week. The low pressure system will give a small chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Behind this system, a large upper high will build into the Gulf of Alaska. Along the eastern side of this high will be a north/northeast flow from western Canada into California. We may see local frost as early as Tuesday morning but I do think we’ll see widespread upper 20s and lower 30s Wednesday through Friday. Those traditional cold regions could potentially dip into the mid 20s, however I must emphasize that will be the exception to the rule. Modification will not begin until next weekend.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

31

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 77%/25%  Porterville, 97%/32%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .74, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .74, Delano .74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 49. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 62/41.  Record Temperatures: 84/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1700 -151, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or -1.32.  Monthly  .00 -1.15

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  -.22. Monthly,  .00 -.70

Average Temperature this month: 51.4 -+1.7 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 851, Parlier, 990,  Arvin, 825, Belridge, 889, Shafter, 844 Stratford, 989, Delano, 976, Porterville, 1003.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:42, Sunset, 5:44, hours of daylight, 11:01

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  67 /  37 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  70 /  35 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  69 /  42 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  69 /  35 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  72 /  36 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  71 /  41 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  68 /  37 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  70 /  35 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21    94    6.86    79     8.70    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   105    6.37    82     7.76    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85    81    5.91    82     7.24    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    1.19    19     6.43    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21    80    5.11    78     6.53    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61    95    3.05    63     4.84     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56    94    1.81    48     3.78     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   151    1.61    54     2.99     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11    76    4.68    58     8.07    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.34    96    5.96    78     7.62    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26    77    6.08    75     8.15    13.32

Next report: February 18 PM