February 19, 2022
We have roughly another 24 hours of pleasant spring like weather before winter comes roaring back. Upper level high pressure is currently overhead but will completely cave in Saturday night and Sunday. A very cold winter storm will enter the picture in two phases. The main dynamics of phase one will move into the Great Basin with a chance of snow showers over the Sierra Nevada Monday and Tuesday. The second phase will move rapidly southwestward through western Canada and into California Tuesday night and Wednesday. The flow from northwest Canada is tracking from northeast to southwest bringing very cold arctic air into California. The main dynamics of this storm will be right overhead Tuesday night and Wednesday, giving us our best shot of measurable precipitation. The snow level will drop to as low as 1.000 feet along the Sierra Nevada, Coast Range, and the Kern County mountains. The main concern of what I would term a bitterly cold air mass for this late in the season is overnight low temperatures,, especially Thursday and Friday of this week. This is discussed below. The northeast flow at mid week will be replaced by a west/northwest flow by Friday, returning dry weather and a much milder air mass next weekend. Medium range models this afternoon are not quite as bullish on a wet pattern for the last few days of February. They do show, however, a low off British Columbia and Washington state with the jet stream flanked into northern California for the possibility of precipitation from time to time, mainly to our north.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. increasing cloudiness by late Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Tuesday. An increasing chance of light showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Light showers ending Wednesday evening. Becoming mostly clear and cold Thursday and Friday. mostly clear and warmer Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 35/71/38/59 | Reedley 38/72/39/59 | Dinuba 36/70/38/60 |
Porterville 35/72/37/60 | Lindsay 34/72/37/59 | Delano 37/71/39/60 |
Bakersfield 43/72/42/59 | Taft 48/70/43/57 | Arvin 38/73/38/60 |
Lamont 37/73/38/61 | Pixley 35/71/35/69 | Tulare 34/70/36/58 |
Woodlake 35/71/37/51 | Hanford 36/72/38/59 | Orosi 35/71/37/59 |
Wind Discussion: Expect winds to be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions. From Sunday night through Tuesday, there will be periods of gusty winds, mainly out of the northwest, at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Model information this afternoon has changed little from this morning. Only a slight chance of light showers exists for Tuesday, increasing to a 50/50 proposition Tuesday night and Wednesday. It’s possible communities up near the 800 to 1000 foot elevations could see some snow flakes. If measurable precipitation does occur, anticipate no more than a tenth or two at any given location. the chance of showers will drop off quickly Wednesday evening as a large ridge of high pressure builds in from the west for dry weather through at least next Saturday. Models are a bit different this afternoon in portraying a possible wet pattern for northern California and possibly central California beginning next Sunday. Models this morning indicated precipitation would be over most of central California from time to time. This afternoon, however, the precipitation is shown mainly north of Fresno. The good news is this will be a multi faceted event with rain from time to time over at least northern California, lasting for several days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. We are still concentrating on the pattern for Tuesday through Saturday now. We’ve extended this to Saturday as the air mass may not have enough time to moderate before then. Blended model information this afternoon,, using Porterville as a pilot station, shows temperatures of 32 Wednesday, 29 Thursday, 31 Friday, and 33 Saturday. There is definitely a consistent trend on these models for widespread frost. Other models are also falling into line. What we have is a very cold low dropping from northeast to southwest, which is rare, into California Sunday night through Wednesday. This arctic air will settle in for most of the week with some modification occurring next weekend. However, it will probably be Sunday before we’re completely out of the woods. These models would easily peg the coldest real estate in the mid 20s with most flat topography in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. I’m still looking at Thursday and Friday being the coldest in this series.
Next report: February 20