February 19, 2022
High pressure covers the eastern Pacific and most of the western US. There is a small upper low located roughly 400 miles west of Santa Maria which continues to move southward parallel to the coast. In the meantime, a very cold low is developing over the extreme northeast Pacific and northwest Canada. This system will dive into the Pacific Northwest Sunday with most of the energy diving into the Great Basin Monday. However, a secondary wave will develop in western Canada. It will rapidly move southwestward into California Tuesday through Wednesday. Since this wave of low pressure is taking an overland trajectory from the northern reaches of Canada, it will be extremely cold with snow in the foothills possibly as low as 1,000 feet by Wednesday morning. If we receive precipitation from this system, Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the best window of opportunity. Typically, storms that develop over land do not carry much water and no doubt that will be the case this time, as well. The main concern will be overnight low temperatures as widespread frost can be expected possibly as early as Wednesday morning. However, Thursday and Friday will be the time frame of most concern. This is detailed in the frost discussion below. Upper level high pressure will follow Thursday through Saturday of next week as the upper flow eventually becomes west/northwest, moderating temperatures next weekend. There are some hints on modeling this morning that a zonal, or westerly flow, will develop across the Pacific and into California beginning the 27 as a low develops off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. If this does occur, we would see the first substantial wet pattern in more than 2 months.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. increasing cloudiness by late Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Tuesday. An increasing chance of light showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Light showers ending Wednesday evening. Becoming mostly clear and cold Thursday and Friday. mostly clear and warmer Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 72/37/72’/39/59 | Reedley 73/37/72/40/61 | Dinuba 71/36/71/39/60 |
Porterville 73/36/72/38/60 | Lindsay 72/36/71/39/61 | Delano 73/39/72/39/59 |
Bakersfield 73/45/75/45/58 | Taft 69/51/70/50/57 | Arvin 73/40/71/42/61 |
Lamont 72/40/72/42/60 | Pixley 73/39/72/38/60 | Tulare 71/36/71/39/60 |
Woodlake 72/37/72/39/59 | Hanford 73/38/72/38/58 | Orosi 72/37/71/39/59 |
Seven Forecast
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 35/59 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 34/54 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/54 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: this model shows most of the country with below average temperatures. California is about the lone exception where an off shore ridge will result in above average temperatures with a very low chance of precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Expect winds to be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions. From Sunday night through Tuesday, there will be periods of gusty winds, mainly out of the northwest, at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through Monday and possibly through Monday night. Only a slight chance of scattered light showers exists for Tuesday. If we’re going to receive measurable rain, our best chance of receiving it will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday. For now, it appears that if any measurable rain does accumulate, it will be no more than a tenth or two. Expect dry weather later Wednesday night through next Saturday. Some models are rnow showing a low developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a strong westerly flow into California. This is typically a wet pattern, especially for the Sierra Nevada. Since almost two months has elapsed with virtually no rain, we are certainly overdo.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and again Sunday night. Frost is doubtful for Tuesday morning, but cannot be ruled out as a very cold air mass begins to overspread central California. A very cold low pressure system with origins in the extreme northeast Pacific and northwest Canada will begin to affect our weather late Sunday night and Monday with gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Wednesday through Friday mornings may turn out to be the coldest of the winter, especially Thursday and Friday. Blended model information this morning pegs Porterville at 33 Wednesday, 30 Thursday, and 31 Friday. This definitely puts the traditional unprotected low spots in the low 20s, possibly in the 25 to 27 degree range Thursday and Friday mornings. I’m hoping we receive at least some rain to wet the ground Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, at this juncture I put that chance at about 50/50. We may receive the benefit of upslope clouds Wednesday morning, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties and wind conditions will certainly benefit Merced County southward through Kings County. That probably will not be the case Thursday and Friday with near calm winds and clear skies.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/26% Porterville, 94%/30%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .79, Parlier .73, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .73, Porterville .73, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 49. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41. Record Temperatures: 79/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1713 -151, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -1.39. Monthly .00 -1.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.26. Monthly, .00 -.74
Average Temperature this month: 51.4 -+1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 859, Parlier, 1000, Arvin, 836, Belridge, 897, Shafter, 852 Stratford, 1000, Delano, 986, Porterville, 1014. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:41, Sunset, 5:45, hours of daylight, 11:03
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 71 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 93 6.86 78 8.80 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 104 6.37 81 7.84 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 80 5.91 81 7.32 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 18 6.50 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 79 5.11 77 6.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 94 3.05 62 4.90 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 93 1.81 47 3.82 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 149 1.61 53 3.02 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 75 4.68 57 8.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 95 5.96 77 7.71 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 76 6.08 74 8.26 13.32
Next report: February 19 PM