February 20, 2022
Rapid changes in the pattern are taking place along the western north American continent. An elongated very cold trough of low pressure is digging southward, partially over land and partially over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The southern limit of this trough is now moving into Oregon along with its associated cold front. The trough will dig into northern California tonight and into central California late tonight and Monday. The first phase of this very cold storm will dig southward mainly from the Sierra Nevada eastward into the Great Basin. Phase two will arrive Monday night and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure develops all the way from Hudson Bay, Canada southwestward to central California. The far western side of the trough arcs out over the ocean, increasing the chance of showers. A strong northeast flow aloft will develop Tuesday and Wednesday, pumping cold, modified arctic air into California. On paper, it looks like we’ll have a hard freeze Thursday morning and, to a lesser extent, Friday and Saturday mornings. More below in the frost discussion. The trough will begin to shift eastward Wednesday night as upper level high pressure begins to build in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Models yesterday began showing the rain line moving further north around the last two days of February. That trend continues this morning so it appears late february and early March will unfortunately be very dry. so, if we’re going to receive any measurable rain this month, it will have to be Tuesday through Wednesday.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Variable cloudiness tonight through Wednesday. Light showers becoming likely Tuesday and at times through Wednesday morning. A chance of light showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/38/58/33/53 | Reedley 72/39/59/35/55 | Dinuba 71/39/59/34/54 |
| Porterville 72/39/60/34/53 | Lindsay 72/37/58/33/53 | Delano 72/39/60/35/54 |
| Bakersfield 73/42/59/35/52 | taft 70/44/57/40/50 | Arvin 73/40/60/35/52 |
| Lamont 73/41/58/36/52 | Pixley 72/38/58/35/52 | Tulare 71/38/58/33/51 |
| Woodlake 71/38/58/34/53 | Hanford 72/38/58/35/53 | Orosi 71/37/58/34/52 |
Seven Forecast
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 35/59 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 34/54 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/54 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: this model shows most of the country with below average temperatures. California is about the lone exception where an off shore ridge will result in above average temperatures with a very low chance of precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 8 MPH. winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. gusts to 30 MPH will be possible, mainly along the west side Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Rain: Models this morning are more optimistic that it may actually rain in the valley. Light showers will spread down the valley Tuesday with a reasonably decent chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Showers will begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will range from just a few hundredths to possibly more than a quarter of an inch. The precipitation pattern will be spotty so the chance of rain in the south valley will be just as high as in the central and northern sections of the valley. Dry weather will return Wednesday night with dry weather the remainder of the month. If you recall, previous models had indicated possibly wet weather towards the end of the month. That began changing on yesterday’s models and continues this morning.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Monday morning with most locations being above freezing Tuesday morning. Models this morning are even more ominous than previous runs as far as the potential for below freezing weather. Blended model information this morning for Porterville indicates a low of 34 Wednesday morning, 27 Thursday, and 30 Friday. That 27 for Thursday may be a bit overdone, however it does illustrate the potential of the air mass which will begin to feed in here tonight and Monday. A very cold trough of low pressure will stretch from Hudson Bay, Canada to central California by Tuesday afternoon, setting up an overland northeast to southwest flow. I’m hoping we receive enough precipitation to put some moisture in the soil to act as a little bit of a buffer, anyway. The chance of rain is higher this morning than on previous model runs. For now, I believe the threshold of this air mass would chill temperatures down to 25 to 27 in those usual cold spots Thursday and Friday mornings with most flatland locations between 28 and 31. Slow moderation will begin to take place next weekend as the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Longer range models are showing milder conditions, so if we can just get through this week unscathed, we’ll be just fine.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 85%/28% Porterville, 100%/33%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .81, Parlier .74, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .73, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 49. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 80/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1724 -153, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -1.46. Monthly .00 -1.29
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.30. Monthly, .00 -.78
Average Temperature this month: 51.6 -+1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 867, Parlier, 1011, Arvin, 844, Belridge, 906, Shafter, 858 Stratford, 1009, Delano, 995, Porterville, 1025. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:40, Sunset, 5:46, hours of daylight, 11:04
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
MERCED 0.00 5.85 79 5.91 80 7.41 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 18 6.58 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 78 5.11 77 6.67 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 93 3.05 62 4.95 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 92 1.81 47 3.86 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 147 1.61 53 3.06 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 74 4.68 57 8.25 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 94 5.96 76 7.80 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 75 6.08 73 8.37 13.32
Next report: February 20 PM
February 20, 2022
Rapid changes in the pattern are taking place along the western north American continent. An elongated very cold trough of low pressure is digging southward, partially over land and partially over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The southern limit of this trough is now moving into Oregon along with its associated cold front. The trough will dig into northern California tonight and into central California late tonight and Monday. The first phase of this very cold storm will dig southward mainly from the Sierra Nevada eastward into the Great Basin. Phase two will arrive Monday night and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure develops all the way from Hudson Bay, Canada southwestward to central California. The far western side of the trough arcs out over the ocean, increasing the chance of showers. A strong northeast flow aloft will develop Tuesday and Wednesday, pumping cold, modified arctic air into California. On paper, it looks like we’ll have a hard freeze Thursday morning and, to a lesser extent, Friday and Saturday mornings. More below in the frost discussion. The trough will begin to shift eastward Wednesday night as upper level high pressure begins to build in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Models yesterday began showing the rain line moving further north around the last two days of February. That trend continues this morning so it appears late february and early March will unfortunately be very dry. so, if we’re going to receive any measurable rain this month, it will have to be Tuesday through Wednesday.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Variable cloudiness tonight through Wednesday. Light showers becoming likely Tuesday and at times through Wednesday morning. A chance of light showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/38/58/33/53 | Reedley 72/39/59/35/55 | Dinuba 71/39/59/34/54 |
| Porterville 72/39/60/34/53 | Lindsay 72/37/58/33/53 | Delano 72/39/60/35/54 |
| Bakersfield 73/42/59/35/52 | taft 70/44/57/40/50 | Arvin 73/40/60/35/52 |
| Lamont 73/41/58/36/52 | Pixley 72/38/58/35/52 | Tulare 71/38/58/33/51 |
| Woodlake 71/38/58/34/53 | Hanford 72/38/58/35/53 | Orosi 71/37/58/34/52 |
Seven Forecast
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 35/59 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 34/54 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/54 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 34/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: this model shows most of the country with below average temperatures. California is about the lone exception where an off shore ridge will result in above average temperatures with a very low chance of precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 8 MPH. winds tonight through Wednesday will be generally out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH. gusts to 30 MPH will be possible, mainly along the west side Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Rain: Models this morning are more optimistic that it may actually rain in the valley. Light showers will spread down the valley Tuesday with a reasonably decent chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Showers will begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will range from just a few hundredths to possibly more than a quarter of an inch. The precipitation pattern will be spotty so the chance of rain in the south valley will be just as high as in the central and northern sections of the valley. Dry weather will return Wednesday night with dry weather the remainder of the month. If you recall, previous models had indicated possibly wet weather towards the end of the month. That began changing on yesterday’s models and continues this morning.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing Monday morning with most locations being above freezing Tuesday morning. Models this morning are even more ominous than previous runs as far as the potential for below freezing weather. Blended model information this morning for Porterville indicates a low of 34 Wednesday morning, 27 Thursday, and 30 Friday. That 27 for Thursday may be a bit overdone, however it does illustrate the potential of the air mass which will begin to feed in here tonight and Monday. A very cold trough of low pressure will stretch from Hudson Bay, Canada to central California by Tuesday afternoon, setting up an overland northeast to southwest flow. I’m hoping we receive enough precipitation to put some moisture in the soil to act as a little bit of a buffer, anyway. The chance of rain is higher this morning than on previous model runs. For now, I believe the threshold of this air mass would chill temperatures down to 25 to 27 in those usual cold spots Thursday and Friday mornings with most flatland locations between 28 and 31. Slow moderation will begin to take place next weekend as the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Longer range models are showing milder conditions, so if we can just get through this week unscathed, we’ll be just fine.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 85%/28% Porterville, 100%/33%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .81, Parlier .74, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .73, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 49. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 80/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1724 -153, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -1.46. Monthly .00 -1.29
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.30. Monthly, .00 -.78
Average Temperature this month: 51.6 -+1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 867, Parlier, 1011, Arvin, 844, Belridge, 906, Shafter, 858 Stratford, 1009, Delano, 995, Porterville, 1025. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:40, Sunset, 5:46, hours of daylight, 11:04
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 75 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
MERCED 0.00 5.85 79 5.91 80 7.41 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 18 6.58 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 78 5.11 77 6.67 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 93 3.05 62 4.95 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 92 1.81 47 3.86 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 147 1.61 53 3.06 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 74 4.68 57 8.25 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 94 5.96 76 7.80 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 75 6.08 73 8.37 13.32
Next report: February 20 PM