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Forecast

February 21, 2022/afternoon report

February 21, 2022

Even though skies are partly cloudy this afternoon, rain is on the way. The first phase of this major weather change moved mainly into Nevada early this morning. California, so far, has been on the far western boundary of a very cold low pressure system now digging into northern California. Showers have spread as far south as the northern Sacramento Valley and will arrive over the growing area tonight. Showers have already spread down the Sierra Nevada to Lake Tahoe. Initially, snow levels will be about 2,000 feet, lowering to near 1,000 feet by Wednesday morning. This trough is stretching from Hudson Bay, Canada all the way southwestward over northern and central California. The far western edge of this storm is over water, so the chance of measurable rain is high through Wednesday morning. The main concern is the unusually cold nights we have coming up after the rain event. This is discussed below in the frost summary. By Wednesday evening, the trough will pull off to the east, ending the chance of precipitation, but leaving a very cold air mass which will lead us into a spring frost event. As the high slowly takes over, temperatures will moderate, but it will be Sunday morning before most locations rise to near or above freezing. Medium range models continue to show the storm track being well north of California after this. The new two week model gives little hope for precipitation through the first week in March.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy through this evening. Showers becoming likely later tonight and at times through Wednesday morning. The chance of showers will rapidly decrease Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy and cold Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Monday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 37/52/31/52 Reedley 38/53/32/53 Dinuba 36/52/30/51
Porterville 37/52/31/53 Lindsay 36/52/30/52 Delano 38/52/36/51
Bakersfield 40/52/34/51 Taft 41/50/38/48 Arvin 38/53/33/53
Lamont 38/52/32/54 Pixley 37/51/32/52 Tulare 36/51/30/52
Woodlake 37/53/31/52 Hanford 38/52/32/53 Orosi 35/52/30/53

 

Wind Discussion: There will be periods of winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times with locally stronger gusts. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening, becoming light and variable later Wednesday night through Friday.

 

Rain:  Showers will spread down the valley from northwest to southeast later tonight and will continue at times through Wednesday morning. Winds will taper off by Wednesday afternoon. Expect dry weather Wednesday night and for at least the next seven days thereafter. Rainfall amounts from the current storm will range from a few hundredths to upwards to a quarter to a third of an inch or so. The greatest potential for showers will be along the foothills of the Coast Range, the Sierra Nevada, and the Kern County mountains.

 

Frost: Temperatures this afternoon are running 7 to 12 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, despite the amount of sunshine at most locations. Clouds will begin to increase this evening, leading to periods of showers tonight and Tuesday morning, keeping temperatures above freezing. We now have a modified polar air mass moving from northeast to southwest with origins in central Canada overspreading California.

 

Wind conditions and cloud cover will help modify temperatures Wednesday morning with most locations in the low to mid  30s. It’s possible pockets may dip down into the upper 20s where skies clear and winds die off. It’s Thursday through Saturday that’s my main timeframe of concern. Blended model information has been amazingly consistent the past few days. Again, using Porterville as a key location, these models are depicting temperatures of 27 Thursday morning, 29 Friday morning, and 32 Saturday morning. I’ll stick with the premise that, under the right conditions Thursday morning, coldest river bottom and similar locations could dip down to 24 to 26 degrees with most flatland locations coming in at 27 to 31. Durations below 32 can be expected to last 8 to 10 hours at the coldest locations. Expect similar conditions Friday morning. Saturday morning should see 2 to 3 degrees of moderation with most locations pulling into the 30s Sunday morning and remaining generally above freezing thereafter.

 

If there’s any good news, it’s that medium range models show a mild weather pattern with temperatures rising above average.

 

Next report: February 22