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Forecast

2/22/22 Report

The center of circulation of an unusually cold low is near reno, Nevada this morning. It’s part of a huge arctic trough of low pressure which extends from northeast Canada southeastward to off the northern and central California coast. The freezing level over Oakland has plummeted to 3,300 feet but go up to Medford, Oregon where the freezing level is now 700 feet. That pool of extremely cold air will settle over California over the next 48 hours and will lead to a hard freeze Thursday through Saturday mornings. Even tonight, coldest locations will dip into the upper 20s where skies clear and winds die off. All this is discussed in the frost section below.

 

This trough will begin to shift eastward by late Wednesday afternoon. Doppler radar at this hour shows light showers spreading southward into Kings and Tulare Counties and it will move into Kern County shortly. Upper level high pressure will begin to bulge in from the west Thursday. Unfortunately, the modified arctic air mass will be in place on the valley floor. That air mass will quickly modify over the weekend as the high will cover most of the western US. Late Sunday and Sunday night, a trough of low pressure will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California with some increase in cloud cover but little else. Medium range models continue to indicate the storm track will be too far to the north for much needed precipitation in central California.

 

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today and tonight with periods of light showers. A chance of showers Wednesday morning. Becoming partly cloudy  in the afternoon. Clearing Wednesday night. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 52/31/51/27/55 Reedley 52/31/52/26/57 Dinuba 51/29/52/25/57
Porterville 53/31/53/26/28 Lindsay 52/30/53/26/57 Delano 53/32/52/27/58
Bakersfield 51/35/51/30/55 Taft 51/36/49/34/52 Arvin 51/33/53/26/58
Lamont 52/33/53/26/57 Pixley 51/31/52/27/56 Tulare 51/30/51/25/55
Woodlake 52/31/52/26/56 Hanford 53/32/52/26/58 Orosi 51/30/52/25/57

 

Seven Forecast

Friday

Mostly clear

27/57

Saturday

Mostly clear

29/60

Sunday

Partly cloudy

33/65

Monday

Mostly clear

36/67

Tuesday

Mostly clear

39/67

                                     

Two Week Outlook:  March 1 through March 7: This model is indicating a persistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California with the storm track being held way to our north. Above average temperatures can be expected during this period.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Wednesday, diminishing Wednesday evening. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Doppler radar at this hour indicates there’s a spattering of light showers moving into the south valley. Light showers will be possible at any time from now through the morning commute Wednesday with dry weather returning Wednesday afternoon. Expect dry weather for the seven day period beginning Thursday.

 

Rainfall amounts from the current storm will range from a few hundredths to possibly as much as a quarter to a third of an inch in isolated locations. Models show the potential for the heaviest precipitation to be in eastern Tulare and Kern Counties.

 

Frost:  a pool of extremely cold air is currently settling over northern California and will move into central California tonight and Wednesday. Lows tonight will be manageable due to cloud cover and the chance of showers from time to time. Even so, where skies clear and winds die off, the potential for the usual cold low spots dipping into the upper 20s is certainly there. What is most worrisome is Thursday and Friday mornings and to a lesser extent Saturday morning. As I have mentioned over the past few days, blended model information has been very consistent in projecting a hard freeze those three mornings. Again this morning, Porterville comes in at 27 Thursday morning, 28 Friday morning and 30 Saturday. This would easily put those low lying areas down to 23 to 25 with the more typical flat terrain locations between 26 and 30. Hillsides will range from 30 to 35. Durations below 32 degrees will range from 8 to 10 hours with durations at or below 28 degrees Thursday morning at the coldest locations being 2 to 4 hours. Similar conditions can be expected Friday with perhaps 2 to 3 degrees of moderation Saturday morning. Temperatures Sunday morning can be expected to range from 30 to 35. Medium range models this morning indicate mild weather with above freezing conditions.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

32

McFarland

30

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

30

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 82%/39%  Porterville, 96%/46%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .71, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .71, Porterville .71, Delano .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 63/41.  Record Temperatures: 78/30

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1752 -151, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or -1.61.  Monthly  .00 -1.44

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  -.39. Monthly,  .00 -.87

Average Temperature this month: 51.5 -+1.3 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 889, Parlier, 1037,  Arvin, 863, Belridge, 923, Shafter, 865 Stratford, 1032, Delano, 1018, Porterville, 1054.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:37, Sunset, 5:48, hours of daylight, 11:08

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  60 /  44 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  60 /  41 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  58 /  46 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  61 /  39 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  63 /  35 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  60 /  43 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  59 /  42 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  59 /  37 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                      24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21    90    6.86    76     9.08    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   101    6.38    79     8.10    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85    77    5.92    78     7.59    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    1.19    18     6.74    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21    76    5.11    75     6.82    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61    91    3.05    60     5.07     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56    90    1.81    46     3.95     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   144    1.61    51     3.13     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11    72    4.73    56     8.44    12.58

PASO ROBLES                      T    7.34    92    5.96    75     7.99    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26    73    6.08    71     8.58    13.32

Next report: February 22 PM