February 21, 2022
Phase 1 of a major weather change, which will drag us right back into winter mode, is well underway. An elongated unusually cold trough of low pressure stretches from northwest Canada with the trough moving due south into extreme western Nevada. Snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada today with snow down to 2,000 feet. Phase 2 will arrive tonight as a stronger wave of low pressure moves into California with the far western boundary of the low making it just off shore. The trough will morph into a huge area of low pressure, stretching from Hudson Bay, Canada to central California. This will generate a northeast overland flow of modified arctic air into California tonight and Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will only struggle into the lower 50s with the snow level dropping into the lower foothills at about 1,000 feet. The fact that the western boundary of the storm will be out over the ocean means the chance of showers will be increased. We could pick up as much as a quarter to a third of an inch in places. Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Wednesday night, locking a very cold air mass on the valley floor. This will lead to freeze conditions Thursday and Friday mornings. That is discussed in the frost section below. The high will continue to shift into the west Thursday with dry and warmer conditions over the weekend. Unfortunately, medium range models now indicate a dry pattern for the remainder of the month and into the first week in March.
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. Showers likely at times Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A diminishing chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/36/52/31/51 | Reedley 60/37/53/32/53 | Dinuba 58/36/52/31/52 |
| Porterville 59/36/52/31/52 | Lindsay 59/35/52/30/53 | Delano 60/36/51/32/51 |
| Bakersfield 59/37/52/35/51 | Taft 57/41/49/37/49 | Arvin 60/38/53/34/54 |
| Lamont 59/38/53/33/53 | Pixley 58/36/52/32/51 | Tulare 58/35/51/31/51 |
| Woodlake 59/37/53/31/53 | Hanford 59/36/53/32/54 | Orosi 59/37/52/31/52 |
Seven Forecast
| Thursday
Mostly clear 28/52 |
Friday
Mostly clear 29/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 31/61 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 33/66 |
Monday
Mostly clear 36/70 |
Two Week Outlook: February 28 through March 6: This model shows the main storm track moving into the Pacific northwest during this period with a chance of rain in northern California. The chance of rain for central California remains low with near average temperatures.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: There will be periods of winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Wednesday with locally stronger gusts. Winds will begin to diminish Wednesday evening, becoming light and variable Thursday and Friday.
Rain: Today will be dry with a slight chance of showers showing up after midnight tonight. The chance of showers will increase rapidly Tuesday, continuing Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and diminishing Wednesday afternoon with dry weather thereafter. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, ranging from less than a tenth of an inch to possibly as much as a quarter to a third of an inch. Highest totals will likely be near the base of the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Kern County mountains. Medium range models encompassing the first week in March show little chance of precipitation.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. On Wednesday morning, expect widespread low to mid 30s with a chance of isolated low lying pockets as low as 28 to 30 degrees. There will be a great deal of cloud cover Wednesday night along with erratic wind conditions to maintain relatively safe conditions. That will not be the case for Thursday through Saturday mornings. Using blended model information again for Porterville we get a low of 28 for Thursday morning, 30 Friday morning, and 33 Saturday morning. On Thursday and Friday mornings, the very coldest low lying river bed type of locations could dip down to 24 to 26 with most flatland locations ranging from 27 to 31. Slightly milder conditions will prevail over portions of Kern County.
Similar conditions can be expected Friday morning. Readings Saturday will rise to 2 to 4 degrees or so with more rapid modification after that. Fortunately, we’re in the time of year with longer days and a higher sun angle modifying the situation quickly over the weekend.
Longer range models indicate above freezing readings through the end of February and into the first week in March.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/26% Porterville, 98%/33%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .81, Parlier .73, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .73, Porterville .72, Delano .74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 54, Delano 48. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 77/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1736 -154, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or -1.54. Monthly .00 -1.37
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.35. Monthly, .00 -.83
Average Temperature this month: 51.6 -+1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 876, Parlier, 1021, Arvin, 852, Belridge, 914, Shafter, 861 Stratford, 1014, Delano, 1004, Porterville, 1034. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:39, Sunset, 5:47, hours of daylight, 11:06
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 73 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 91 6.86 76 8.99 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 102 6.38 80 8.01 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 78 5.92 79 7.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 18 6.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 77 5.11 76 6.75 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 92 3.05 61 5.01 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.56 91 1.81 46 3.91 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 146 1.61 52 3.09 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 73 4.73 57 8.35 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 93 5.96 75 7.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.26 74 6.08 72 8.48 13.32
Next report: February 21 PM