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Forecast

February 23, 2022/report

February 23, 2022

There are currently a few showers over southern Kern County and some isolated showers along the Sierra Nevada foothills. The rest of the valley is rain free at this hour. Precipitation amounts from the current storm have ranged from just a few hundredths to as much as .43 at Tulare. Their rain gauge happened to be in the path of a thunderstorm yesterday afternoon. The center of circulation of a bitterly cold arctic low is still located over central Nevada this morning but it is showing signs of pulling off to the east. The flow aloft between the exiting low and a weak ridge of high pressure off shore will be out of the north/northwest, ensuring unusually cold weather will continue into the weekend. We have pegged tonight and Thursday night as being dangerous for ag and I’ve not changed my mind on that one iota. More in the frost discussion below.

 

The low will continue to track eastward, allowing a weak ridge of upper level high pressure to begin to warm the atmosphere. The freezing level taken two hours ago above Vandenburg was just 2,500 feet, so snow is falling between 1,000 and 1,500 feet this morning. Temperatures will rise to near 60 Saturday, the mid 60s Sunday, and will push 70 Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, overnight lows will modify more slowly. It will be Monday morning before most locations end up above freezing.

 

A fairly week weather system will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday. However, any light precipitation will remain in northern California. Medium range models going out through the first week in March all look dry, although some models suggest a possible wet pattern between the 8th and 11th of March. Take that with a grain of salt for now as that’s a long way of meteorologically.

 

Forecast: Still a chance of showers for a time this morning, mainly along the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountain foothills. Partly cloudy this afternoon through Thursday morning and cold. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 52/26/54/27/60 Reedley 52/26/56/27/61 Dinuba 51/25/56/26/60
Porterville 52/26/58/27/61 Lindsay 53/25/56/26/60 Delano 51/26/55/28/59
Bakersfield 50/30/55/33/59 Taft 49/33/53/35/56 Arvin 49/28/55/29/59
Lamont 50/27/55/29/58 Pixley 51/25/54/27/60 Tulare 50/25/54/26/58
Woodlake 52/25/58/26/60 Hanford 52/26/57/28/60 Orosi 51/25/56/26/60

 

Seven Forecast

Saturday

Mostly clear

30/60

Sunday

Partly cloudy

34/66

Monday

Mostly clear

35/67

Tuesday

Mostly clear

37/70

Wednesday

Mostly clear

41/73

                                     

Two Week Outlook:  March 1 through March 7: This model is indicating a persistent ridge of high pressure will be over the eastern Pacific and California with the storm track being held way to our north. Above average temperatures can be expected during this period.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds late tonight through Saturday will be generally less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  There’s still a chance of a few showers, mainly over the next couple of hours and generally near the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountain foothills. Otherwise, expect dry weather for at least the next seven days.

 

Frost:  It’s not often that you see the coldest night of the winter in late February but that may turn out to be the case tonight followed closely by Thursday night. A very cold pocket of air is currently over central California.  Northwest winds this afternoon behind this system should pull dew points down into the upper 20s. It’s possible we could receive enough upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties for some help for at least a portion of the night, but that’s no guarantee. Again, using blended model information for Porterville, we show a low of 26 tonight and 29 for Friday morning with 30 for Saturday morning. The potential of this air mass would bring temperatures at unprotected low lying river bottom type locations down to 23 to 25  most flat terrain down to 26 to 28 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. Even Sunday morning, coldest locations may briefly drop into the upper 20s, however most will be in the mid to upper 30s

 

Durations below 32 tonight will be from 8 to 10 hours with durations at or below 28  being 2 to 4 hours with similar conditions Friday morning. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet being from 2 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

For Saturday morning, expect 2 to 3 degrees of modification with another 2 to 4 on Sunday morning. The good news is that next week will be above freezing with above average daytime highs.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

26

Porterville

25

Ivanhoe

25

Woodlake

26

Strathmore

26

McFarland

25

Ducor

27

Tea Pot Dome

26

Lindsay

24

Exeter

25

Famoso

27

Madera

26

Belridge

25

Delano

25

North Bakersfield

27

Orosi

25

Orange Cove

26

Lindcove

25

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

23

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

26

Rosedale

28

Jasmine

27

Arvin

28

Lamont

28

Plainview

26

Mettler

26

Edison

29

Maricopa

26

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

26

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

26

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/68%  Porterville, 99%/80%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 20s.  Kern: Mid to upper 20s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 70%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .76, Parlier .66, Arvin .79, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .66, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 52, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 53, Delano 48. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 63/42.  Record Temperatures: 79/30

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1772 -143, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.25 or -1.65.  Monthly  .00 -1.48

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.67 or  -.33. Monthly,  .00 -.81

Average Temperature this month: 51.2-+0.9 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 889, Parlier, 1037,  Arvin, 863, Belridge, 923, Shafter, 865 Stratford, 1032, Delano, 1018, Porterville, 1054.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:36, Sunset, 5:49, hours of daylight, 11:11

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  55 /  32 /  0.02 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  56 /  33 /  0.04 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  55 /  39 /  0.04 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  52 /  34 /  0.17 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  54 /  29 /  0.08 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  55 /  40 /  0.11 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  50 /  34 /  0.17 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  50 /  35 /  0.21 /

 

Rainfall:                                      24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21    90    6.86    75     9.17    13.45

MODESTO                       0.01    8.16   100    6.38    78     8.18    12.27

MERCED                        0.02    5.87    77    5.92    77     7.67    11.80

MADERA                        0.03       M     M    1.19    17     6.82    10.79

FRESNO                        0.04    5.25    76    5.11    74     6.90    10.99

HANFORD                       0.17    4.78    93    3.05    60     5.12     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.11    3.67    92    1.81    45     4.00     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   142    1.61    51     3.16     4.84

SALINAS                       0.07    6.18    73    4.73    56     8.52    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.03    7.37    91    5.96    74     8.08    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.02    6.28    72    6.08    70     8.69    13.32

Next report: February 23 PM