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Forecast

February 23/afternoon

 

February 23, 2023

The coldest air mass for this late in the season for a number of years is now in place on the valley floor. Midday temperatures are only in the mid to upper 40s, even in locations north of Kings and Tulare Counties where there is plenty of sunshine. A considerable amount of upslope clouds are banking up against  the north facing slopes of the Kern County Mountains with mostly cloudy conditions over Kern and Tulare Counties. It’s possible that may be a saving  grace in those areas for at least part of the night, anyway. High resolution models, however, indicate drier air will mix down into the south valley tonight. This bears out on surface observations which indicate dew points are in the low to mid 30s from Hanford and Visalia south but have fallen into the upper 20s from Merced north. Gusty winds are moving down the west side of the valley. Currently, the Lemoore NAS is reporting winds out of the northwest at 22 mph, gusting to 28 mph. I don’t want to be repetitive so I won’t get into the frost details here other than to say the parameters are in place for a hard freeze tonight and tomorrow night and to a lesser extent Friday night.

 

The center of the arctic low has now moved into southern Utah with the far western flank of the low over central California with a northeast flow aloft. Later tonight, the low will be far enough to the east to allow pressure differences to relax, returning light winds to the valley floor. Weak upper level high pressure will move in from the west Thursday through Saturday night for a decent warming trend during the day, finally pulling overnight lows up to acceptable levels by the end of the weekend. A weak trough will move through the Pacific Northwest and about the northern ¼ of California late Sunday and Monday for some increase in cloud cover but little else. Otherwise, medium range models show the storm track remaining too far to the north for rain in our area.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear north of Kings and Tulare Counties tonight and cold. Partly to mostly cloudy in the south valley for at least the first half of the night, possibly clearing after midnight. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 26/57/28/59 Reedley 26/58/28/60 Dinuba 25/57/27/60
Porterville 25/57/27/60 Lindsay 24/56/26/60 Delano 26/55/27/59
Bakersfield 30/56/33/58 Taft 33/53/37/62 Arvin 27/55/29/59
Lamont 28/56/29/60 Pixley 25/57/27/60 Tulare 24/55/26/59
Woodlake 25/56/27/59 Hanford 26/58/27/60 Orosi 25/56/27/60

 

Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with stronger gusts along the west side, diminishing this evening and becoming light to calm after midnight. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next 7 days and possibly longer.

 

Frost: No doubt about it, it’s going to be a busy evening for many. This is the coldest air mass I’ve seen this late in the  year in recent memory. We may have one saving grace in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties and that is upslope clouds piling up against the northwest slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and extend northward over Kings and Tulare counties. However, high resolution models this afternoon indicate these clouds will mix out during the course of the night. Ground observations seem to bear this out as dew points from Merced north have fallen into the upper 20s but remain in the low to mid 30s south of a Hanford/Visalia line. No model this afternoon outlines a good outcome for tomorrow morning. The blended model, which I’ve been relying on quite a bit this winter, is indicating a low of 26 at Porterville Thursday morning and 29 Friday morning. Other models show similar readings, give or take a degree. This will put the coldest low lying real estate down to 23 to 25 degrees with  most flatland locations between 25 and 29. Considering the inversion tonight will be weak, hillside locations will drop into the 29 to 33 degree range.

 

Durations at or below 32 at the coldest locations is estimated to be 8 to 10 hours and at or below 28 degrees at those locations 2 to 4 hours. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet from 2 to 5 degrees warmer. Friday morning will be no picnic either, but temperatures might be 1 to 3 degrees milder at some locations. Coldest locations Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s and generally in the low to mid 30s Sunday. After that, we’re home free.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

26

Porterville

25

Ivanhoe

24

Woodlake

25

Strathmore

26

McFarland

24

Ducor

26

Tea Pot Dome

25

Lindsay

24

Exeter

25

Famoso

26

Madera

25

Belridge

24

Delano

26

North bakersfield

26

Orosi

25

Orange Cove

26

Lindcove

25

Lindcove Hillside

30

Sanger River Bottom

23

Root Creek

24

Venice Hill

26

Rosedale

26

Jasmine

26

Arvin

27

Lamont

28

Plainview

26

Mettler

25

Edison

29

Maricopa

26

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

25

Kite Road South

29

Kite Road North

25

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: February 24