February 28, 2022
The first half of this week will be very spring like as we end meteorological winter. In my line of work, spring starts March 1. This winter did not produce the hope for the amount of precipitation. December was wet, but January and February were very dry. Temperatures will show significant warming through Wednesday as reasonably strong upper level high pressure shifts eastward over California. Temperatures will move into the 70s today with warmest locations pushing 80 Wednesday. This burst of spring will not last long, however. As high pressure builds northward into the Gulf of Alaska, the high over California will buckle Thursday, allowing a weak trough of low pressure to move through. Light showers will spread down to a Monterey/Merced line Thursday and over the remainder of the valley late Thursday and Thursday night.
Over the weekend, a series of disturbances will dive southward along the eastern rim of high pressure over the eastern Pacific. this will renew the chance of light showers over the mountains Saturday and again Monday night and Tuesday with a slight chance over the valley. The flow aloft will be north to south between the off shore high and the cold trough of low pressure over the interior west, resulting in below average temperatures this weekend and well into next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Light showers becoming likely from Merced northward Thursday and over the remainder of the valley late Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. A slight chance of showers Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/38/76/39/78 | Reedley 73/36/75/40/78 | Dinuba 71/36/75/40/77 |
| Porterville 73/37/75/39/79 | Lindsay 72/36/75/39/78 | Delano 72/39/76/40/79 |
| Bakersfield 73/44/77/48/79 | Taft 71/50/74/53/76 | Arvin 74/39/77/40/80 |
| Lamont 74/41/77/42/80 | Pixley 72/40/76/41/78 | Tulare 71/37/75/39/76 |
| Woodlake 72/36/75/38/77 | Hanford 73/38/75/40/77 | Orosi 72/36/75/38/77 |
Seven Forecast
| Thursday
PM showers 43/78 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/67 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 34/60 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/61 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 32/60 |
Two Week Outlook: March 7 through March 13: This model still shows a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast with the flow aloft out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in below average temperatures. Most of the active weather will be over the interior west, so expect below average precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night. Light showers will spread into Merced County Thursday then over the remainder of the valley late Thursday and Thursday night. This will not be a major precipitation producer with rainfall amounts generally between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, possibly a bit heavier from Merced County north. There will be another slight chance of showers Saturday, mainly over the mountains and again Tuesday of next week, but any rain that does fall will be insignificant.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Friday morning. A major pattern change will set up Thursday. By Friday night and Saturday, a north to south flow will begin around a large ridge over the eastern Pacific and a trough of low pressure over the interior west. This will funnel colder air into California, lowering temperatures into the low to mid 30s Saturday and on through the middle of next week. It’s possible a few locations could dip into the upper 20s on any night that has clear skies and little or no wind. Weak disturbance will be embedded within this northerly flow, resulting cloud cover from time to time. Fortunately, this does not appear to be as cold as last week’s event. Even so, local frost will be possible on any night during this period.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%/28% Porterville, 95%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 60%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .64, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .58, Delano .64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42. Record Temperatures: 83/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1853 -110, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -1.86. Monthly .04 -1.86
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.42. Monthly, .11 -.90
Average Temperature this month: 50.5 -0.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 955, Parlier, 1121, Arvin, 932, Belridge, 993, Shafter, 927 Stratford, 1108, Delano, 1094, Porterville, 1136. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:33, Sunset, 5:50, hours of daylight, 11:22
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 86 6.86 72 9.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 95 6.38 75 8.55 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 73 5.92 73 8.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 17 7.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 72 5.11 70 7.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 89 3.05 57 5.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 87 1.81 43 4.22 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 136 1.61 48 3.32 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.18 69 4.73 53 8.95 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 86 5.96 70 8.54 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 69 6.08 66 9.20 13.32
Next report: February 28 PM