February 28, 2023
The short term forecast continues to be spring like. Upper level high pressure will remain virtually overhead through Tuesday. It will then begin to slowly shift inland Wednesday and Wednesday night before a major change in the pattern swings us right back into winter mode late Thursday through the weekend and well into the following week.
The first in back-to-back low pressure systems is fairly mild. The second is cold with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. It will arrive Friday night and Saturday. In fact, the latest model information shows one system exiting early Friday and the second arriving late Friday night and Saturday. We need to adjust the forecast now for the likelihood of showers late Thursday and Thursday night with an increasing chance of showers again Friday night and Saturday.
Models for Sunday and Monday continue to show a series of disturbances moving from north to south into the western US. After Sunday, most of the energy will move into the interior west with a cold north/northwest flow over California. It will be next Wednesday before this pattern shifts far enough to the east to allow a warming trend.
Forecast: mostly clear through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. A chance of showers by later Thursday afternoon. Showers likely Thursday night. A chance of showers Friday. Scattered showers likely late Friday night and Saturday. A chance of showers late Saturday night and Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/76/40/78 | Reedley 38/75/40/79 | Dinuba 36/75/39/76 |
| Porterville 37/76/40/79 | Lindsay 35/75/39/78 | Delano 39/77/40/79 |
| Bakersfield 43/76/47/77 | Taft 52/75/52/76 | Arvin 42/75/44/79 |
| Lamont 41/77/43/80 | Pixley 36/75/39/78 | Tulare 35/75/39/77 |
| Woodlake 37/74/39/77 | Hanford 37/75/41/78 | Orosi 35/75/40/77 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night and possibly through most of the day Thursday. Latest model runs push back the arrival time for showers to mainly Thursday night and Friday morning with a second, colder, system following right on its heels Saturday into Sunday. Realistically, there’s a decent chance of light showers anytime from Thursday evening through Sunday. This pattern, even though very unsettled, is typically one that produces light amounts of precipitation. From late Thursday through Thursday night, a tenth of an inch and possibly as much as a quarter of an inch is possible then an additional tenth or two Friday night through Sunday. It’s always possible to have an impulse crossing the valley during the time of maximum daytime heating which would produce isolated spring thunderstorms. Dry weather will return Monday and for several days thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Friday morning. A series of cold disturbances will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California over the weekend. If you recall the very cold pattern of last week, the flow was out of the north/northeast at times while this upcoming pattern will be mainly a north/northwest flow. This means the flow will be over water which modifies the air mass. Even so, low to mid 30s are likely as early as Saturday morning. From Saturday through Tuesday, we can expect colder temperatures with readings possibly in the 28 to 34 degree range. That’s the threshold given by blended model information. We’ll tweak this during the week.
Next report: March 1
February 28, 2023
The short term forecast continues to be spring like. Upper level high pressure will remain virtually overhead through Tuesday. It will then begin to slowly shift inland Wednesday and Wednesday night before a major change in the pattern swings us right back into winter mode late Thursday through the weekend and well into the following week.
The first in back-to-back low pressure systems is fairly mild. The second is cold with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska. It will arrive Friday night and Saturday. In fact, the latest model information shows one system exiting early Friday and the second arriving late Friday night and Saturday. We need to adjust the forecast now for the likelihood of showers late Thursday and Thursday night with an increasing chance of showers again Friday night and Saturday.
Models for Sunday and Monday continue to show a series of disturbances moving from north to south into the western US. After Sunday, most of the energy will move into the interior west with a cold north/northwest flow over California. It will be next Wednesday before this pattern shifts far enough to the east to allow a warming trend.
Forecast: mostly clear through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. A chance of showers by later Thursday afternoon. Showers likely Thursday night. A chance of showers Friday. Scattered showers likely late Friday night and Saturday. A chance of showers late Saturday night and Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/76/40/78 | Reedley 38/75/40/79 | Dinuba 36/75/39/76 |
| Porterville 37/76/40/79 | Lindsay 35/75/39/78 | Delano 39/77/40/79 |
| Bakersfield 43/76/47/77 | Taft 52/75/52/76 | Arvin 42/75/44/79 |
| Lamont 41/77/43/80 | Pixley 36/75/39/78 | Tulare 35/75/39/77 |
| Woodlake 37/74/39/77 | Hanford 37/75/41/78 | Orosi 35/75/40/77 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night and possibly through most of the day Thursday. Latest model runs push back the arrival time for showers to mainly Thursday night and Friday morning with a second, colder, system following right on its heels Saturday into Sunday. Realistically, there’s a decent chance of light showers anytime from Thursday evening through Sunday. This pattern, even though very unsettled, is typically one that produces light amounts of precipitation. From late Thursday through Thursday night, a tenth of an inch and possibly as much as a quarter of an inch is possible then an additional tenth or two Friday night through Sunday. It’s always possible to have an impulse crossing the valley during the time of maximum daytime heating which would produce isolated spring thunderstorms. Dry weather will return Monday and for several days thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Friday morning. A series of cold disturbances will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California over the weekend. If you recall the very cold pattern of last week, the flow was out of the north/northeast at times while this upcoming pattern will be mainly a north/northwest flow. This means the flow will be over water which modifies the air mass. Even so, low to mid 30s are likely as early as Saturday morning. From Saturday through Tuesday, we can expect colder temperatures with readings possibly in the 28 to 34 degree range. That’s the threshold given by blended model information. We’ll tweak this during the week.
Next report: March 1