March 1, 2022
In the short term, just gorgeous weather through Wednesday night. The high responsible for the well above average temperatures will slide eastward Thursday, allowing an off shore trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska to approach the northern and central California coast. Models continue to outline this trough as morphing into a closed low situation as it moves on shore. This will slow the system down to the point where Thursday may actually be dry with Friday turning out to be the wettest day of the week. As the low tracks right across central California with widespread shower activity,, even a few isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon.
The second, colder storm will be centered just northwest of the Golden Gate Saturday morning and will track right across central California Saturday and Saturday night. This second system is colder and, as it tracks, a pool of cold and unstable air will form above the valley floor Saturday afternoon. This will result in another opportunity for isolated thunderstorm development. Any thunderstorms that do occur will result in heavy rain and possible small hail. The chance of showers will continue Saturday night, possibly lasting into Sunday morning.
All of this is being generated by upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Storms move out of the Gulf of Alaska, slide down the eastern rim of the high through the Pacific Northwest and eventually California. Models are also showing a low developing over western Canada possibly sliding into California in about a week or a week from Wednesday. If this system develops, it will be very cold with snow down into the foothills once again. All of this active weather is sliding south on a northerly flow aloft, causing temperatures to rocket down from near 80 tomorrow down into the mid to upper 50s over the weekend. We will also have local frost concerns, summarized below.
After Wednesday of next week, upper level high pressure will finally start to push in from the west for a dry, warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight and Wednesday with occasional mid and high level clouds entering the picture. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy Thursday with a chance of rain by sunset. Rain at times Thursday night. Showers likely Friday with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Light showers likely again late Friday night through Saturday night with a chance of showers again Sunday morning. There will be a second chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/78/43/70 | Reedley 39/79/42/73 | Dinuba 39/77/40/71 |
| Porterville 39/79/42/73 | Lindsay 38/78/41/73 | Delano 41/79/42/73 |
| Bakersfield 47/80/48/74 | Taft 55/77/55/73 | Arvin 42/81/44/73 |
| Lamont 43/80/44/73 | Pixley 39/79/42/73 | Tulare 39/77/40/71 |
| Woodlake 39/78/42/72 | Hanford 41/79/43/72 | Orosi 39/77/40/72 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday through Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: models this afternoon continue the trend of pushing back the timing of precipitation. We should get through most of the day Thursday dry as models show the off shore trough morphing into a closed low circulation. This will slow the system down but will also increase the chance of a more substantial rain event. It may be as late as Thursday evening before rain enters the picture, but between Thursday night and Friday, heaviest amounts of rain could tally up to between a third to a half an inch, especially from Fresno County north. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Of course, this means localized heavy rain and small hail, typical of spring thunderstorms.
The second system will spread showers down the valley later Friday night through Saturday night with a chance of showers into Sunday morning. Currently, Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon appears to be dry.
Models show a very cold system arriving Wednesday the 10th which could bring snow down into the foothills and another chance of light showers on the valley floor.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing probably through Saturday morning, although readings into the mid to upper 30s are possible Saturday morning. A cold air mass will drop southward into California, primarily over the second half of the weekend and early next week. Widespread low to mid 30s are likely Sunday morning through Wednesday morning with the coldest locales possibly down into the upper 20s. this is something we’ll have to simply tweak as we approach each morning. Currently, the character of this air mass could potentially bring very coldest locations down to 27 to 29. That would be only under ideal frost conditions, meaning a clear sky and little to no wind.
The cold air mass will begin to shift eastward with modifying temperatures by Thursday of next week.
Next report: March 2