March 1, 2022
Temperatures on the valley floor are running 3 to 5 degrees above 24 hours ago. The balloon soundings above both Oakland and Vandenberg indicated the freezing level is just above the 12,000 foot mark. This is indicative of warm air aloft. Upper level high pressure is directly over California this morning with a rich train of moisture moving over the top of the high and into Oregon. We’ll see some mid and high level clouds at times, but otherwise it will be mostly clear. Very spring like weather will prevail through Wednesday. Warmest locations Wednesday afternoon will hit the 80 degree mark for the first time this season on this first day of meteorological spring. Winter will come roaring back beginning Thursday as the first of two low pressure systems from the Gulf of Alaska remove the high and move into California. The first system will approach as a trough then it will morph into its own low pressure circulation. This will increase the chance of more substantial precipitation late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Just as soon as this system moves eastward, the next colder system will arrive late Friday through Saturday morning, spreading light showers down the valley. Depending upon the timing of these systems, it’s possible isolated thunderstorms could develop Thursday and Friday afternoons. The overall pattern is a large high covering the eastern Pacific with a northerly flow developing over the weekend, pumping much colder air into California. Readings will plummet from near 80 Wednesday into the mid to upper 50s Saturday through Monday. Local frost will certainly be possible, especially Sunday through Tuesday of next week. This is discussed in the frost section below. Upper level high pressure will begin to push into California by the middle of next week for the beginning of another warming trend.
Forecast: mostly clear through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. Showers likely Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.. a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. light showers will be likely Friday through Saturday morning with a chance of light showers Saturday afternoon. partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/39/79/43/68 | Reedley 78/40/79/49/61 | Dinuba 77/39/78/41/67 |
| Porterville 78/39/80/41/68 | Lindsay 77/39/79/40/67 | Delano 77/43/80/41/69 |
| Bakersfield 77/49/80/51/70 | Taft 76/53/77/55/68 | Arvin 79//44/81/45/70 |
| Lamont 77/46/80/42/70 | Pixley 76/40/78/42/70 | Tulare 75/38/77/40/67 |
| Woodlake 75/40/78/41/67 | Hanford 77/41/79/42/69 | Orosi 75/39/78/40/68 |
Seven Forecast
| Friday
Light showers 43/70 |
Saturday
Light showers 38/58 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 32/58 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear’ 33/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 7 through March 13: This model still shows a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast with the flow aloft out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in below average temperatures. Most of the active weather will be over the interior west, so expect below average precipitation.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday night. Winds Thursday through Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The chance of showers will increase, especially during the second half of the day Thursday. Latest model data shows the storm now forming its own circulation pattern, increasing the chance of a more substantial rain event. Rainfall amounts from Thursday afternoon through Friday could range upwards of a third to a half an inch in the wettest locations. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening, meaning isolated areas could receive even more. Light showers will spread down the valley again late Friday through Saturday morning. This system is colder and will not produce significant amounts of precipitation. But, considering the trends of this winter, anything will help. Possibly another tenth or two could be picked up
Dry weather will begin Sunday and continue through at least the middle part of next week.
Frost: all locations will be above freezing through Friday and more than likely Saturday morning. Colder weather will arrive Saturday as a big ridge builds into the Gulf of Alaska while a low develops over the desert southwest. This will create a north to south flow over north America. The high off shore won’t build as far north as the pattern we observed a week ago. Even so, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected Sunday through Tuesday with coldest locations in the upper 20s in those low lying pockets that have clear skies and calm winds.The air mass will begin to modify by Wednesday of next week as upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 85%/25% Porterville, 100%/32%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .75, Parlier .67, Arvin .72, Orange Cove .66, Porterville .61, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/43. Record Temperatures: 79/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1876 -109, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -1.89. Monthly .04 -2.06
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.59. Monthly, .11 -1.07
Average Temperature this month: 50.4 -0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 965, Parlier, 1121, Arvin, 944, Belridge, 1006, Shafter, 927 Stratford, 1108, Delano, 1105, Porterville, 1147. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:28, Sunset, 5:54, hours of daylight, 11:24
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 75 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 74 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 73 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 85 6.86 71 9.67 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 95 6.38 74 8.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 72 5.92 73 8.14 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 72 5.11 70 7.31 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 88 3.05 56 5.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 86 1.81 42 4.26 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 134 1.61 48 3.35 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.18 68 4.73 52 9.03 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 85 5.96 69 8.63 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 68 6.08 65 9.30 13.32
Next report: March 1 PM