March 4, 2022
Yesterday, the blended model began putting out significant amounts of precipitation for last night and today over Kern and Tulare counties. Experience told me that was an over zealous estimate. I must admit, I should have gone with the guidance on that model as it was pretty much right on the spot, suggesting well over a half inch in the south valley. Rainfall amounts up to .80 have been measured in Kern County where very little rain has been measured from Fresno County north. More rainfall info is available below.
Showers have ended over northern and northcentral California and will slowly end from northwest to southeast this afternoon through early evening. The next system is located roughly 200 miles off the northwest California coast and will be centered over roughly Mono Lake by sunrise and near the Nevada/Utah border by sunset Saturday. This system is much colder and will spread mainly light showers down the valley later tonight, continuing on and off through Saturday. The chance of isolated thunderstorms is minimized due to the fact the most unstable air will be just to our east during the mid to late afternoon hours Saturday. Even so, it will be a close call so we’ll keep a small chance of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for mainly Fresno County south from Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours.
A drying northerly flow will set up Sunday between the exiting low and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This will lead to the likelihood of frost in the colder locations beginning Sunday morning. More on that in the frost discussion below.
The coming week will be a quiet one as that off shore ridge builds inland. The high will be directly overhead next weekend for well above average temperatures.
Forecast: Showers ending by this evening then showers spreading down the valley again after midnight, continuing through early Saturday evening. There will be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms from mainly Fresno County south Saturday afternoon and early evening. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Friday.
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Short Term:
| Madera 38//54/32/58 | Reedley 38/55/32/59 | Dinuba 36/54/31/58 |
| Porterville 37/55/32/60 | Lindsay 36/55/30/60 | Delano 39/54/33/61 |
| Bakersfield 40/55/38/57 | Taft 42/52/40/54 | Arvin 39/56/34/61 |
| Lamont 40/56/33/61 | Pixley 37/54/31/59 | Tulare 36/54/30/58 |
| Woodlake 37/55/33/60 | Hanford 37/56/33/60 | Orosi 36/55/31/59 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through Saturday evening with locally stronger gusts. Winds will decrease late Saturday evening with light winds returning Sunday through Monday,
Rain: The following are rainfall amounts as of noon today: Delano .46, Porterville .64, Visalia .31, Corcoran .35, Tulare .47, Lemoore .14, Bakersfield .68, Arvin .68, Mettler .43, Taft .29, Shafter .80. Most locations from Fresn0 north only measured a few hundredths to just over a tenth.
Showers have ended over northern California and will end over the next few hours in Fresno and Madera Counties. By this evening, they will have ended in Kern County. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the next four hours or so.
Dry weather will prevail this evening with light showers spreading over the valley again mainly after midnight and continuing on and off through Saturday. There is also a minimal chance of a few thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours. Dry weather will return Saturday night and all indications are it will continue for the remainder of next week.
Rainfall amounts from later tonight through Saturday should generally be in the tenth to a quarter of an inch range. Heavier amounts are possible if isolated thunderstorms break out Saturday afternoon.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The arrival time of the cloud shield from the next storm tonight, a few locations in Kings and Tulare Counties could theoretically drop odown to 32 to 33 degrees. Upslope cloud cover will be apparent for at least part of the night Saturday and early Sunday morning. It’s always a toss of the dice to determine how quickly these clouds mix out. Where skies clear and winds die off, lows Sunday morning in unprotected low spots could drop down to 28 to 30. Most flatland locations will chill down into the 31 to 35 degree range with similar numbers likely Tuesday morning. Most locations should see 2 to 3 degrees of moderation by Wednesday morning with most locations ranging from 33 to 38. For Thursday and beyond, above freezing conditions can be expected.
Next report: March 5