March 7, 2022
California is sandwiched between a ridge of upper level high pressure off the California coast and a cold trough of low pressure covering the Rocky Mountain region and the desert southwest. This has generated a north/south flow over California. Even so, as the off shore high shifts a bit further east over the next 48 hours, temperatures will begin to warm, especially daytime highs. Dew points will remain in the low to mid 30s, allowing chilly overnight temperatures with local frost. The air aloft is definitely warming. The freezing level taken a short time ago over Oakland was 8,300 feet, which is a far cry from the 4,500 foot level yesterday.
The off shore high will slowly shift eastward through Saturday, allowing temperatures to rise into the lower 70s by Saturday and Sunday. The top portion of the high will break down Sunday night and Monday, allowing a series of storms to move into the Pacific Northwest and at least northern California. The GFS model shows rain spreading all the way into Kern County about Tuesday with possibly a second system later next week. This is by no means a trend showing up on models. Hopefully it will become one as the week progresses.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 65/32/68/35/69 | Reedley 66/33/69/37/70 | Dinuba 65/31/68/36/70 |
Porterville 66/32/69/35/70 | Lindsay 65/31/68/35/69 | Delano 66/34/69/36/71 |
Bakersfield 65/39/65/42/68 | Taft 63/45/66/47/68 | Arvin 66/36/70/37/71 |
Lamont 65/35/69/39/70 | Pixley 64/33/67/37/68 | Tulare 64/32/67/35/68 |
Woodlake 65/33/67/37/69 | Hanford 66/33/68/37/69 | Orosi 64/31/69/36/69 |
Seven Day Forecast
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/70 |
Friday
Mostly clear 34/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 36/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/72 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 39/72 |
Two Week Outlook: March 16 through March 23 Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and early evenings 5 to 10 mph. during the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday night. There is a possibility of rain Monday through Wednesday of next week. This is in no means in concrete, however. The GFS model shows rain spreading all the way south into Kern County. Other models show the system remaining north of us. Since no real trend has developed, we’ll go with a dry forecast and study the system.
Frost: Tonight will be very similar to last night with widespread low to mid 30s. As of 6:00am, the coldest readings I could find were down near 30 with most locations between 32 and 36. With anticipated dew points in the low to mid 30s, overnight lows tonight will generally range from near 29 at those frost pockets to 31 to 37 elsewhere. Hillsides will remain above freezing. Look for 1 tto 3 degrees of modification for Tuesday night. For Wednesday night and beyond, temperatures will be generally in the mid 30s to near 40. Longer term, nothing is showing up on models that would result in below freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
Root creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/69% Porterville, 97%/47%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .95, Parlier .70, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .68, Porterville .71, Delano .77. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43. Record Temperatures: 84/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1945 -103, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.26. Monthly .11 -.20
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.15. Monthly, .68 +.44
Average Temperature this month: 53.2 -1.3Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:20, Sunset, 6:00, hours of daylight, 11:37
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
m
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 81 6.92 69 10.09 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 91 6.38 71 9.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.88 69 5.92 69 8.53 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 15 7.68 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 71 5.11 66 7.69 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 92 3.05 53 5.74 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 97 1.81 40 4.50 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 129 1.61 46 3.49 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.26 66 4.78 50 9.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 80 5.98 65 9.16 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 64 6.08 62 9.85 13.32
Next report: March 7 PM
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.