March 15, 2022
A trough of low pressure is currently moving through northern and central California. Light showers have spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line. It’s possible a few light showers could struggle into Fresno and Madera Counties, but most locations will record just trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths with the south valley remaining dry. Cloud cover and weaker pressures aloft will help low temperatures a tad. Behind this system is a flat zone of high pressure. For the remainder of the work week, weak disturbances will race eastward into the Pacific Northwest. We will see some cloud cover from time to time from these features, but little else.
Over the weekend, a more significant trough of low pressure will approach the coast. The timing of this storm is a bit tricky. Some models show precipitation moving into central California Saturday while others hold it off until Saturday night or even Sunday. One element they do agree on is that rain will spread over most of California all the way southward to the Mexico border, something we haven’t seen too much of this season. As much as a foot of snow will fall over the northern and central Sierra Nevada with lesser amounts south of Yosemite. But even as far south as Sequoia, six to eight inches is possible.
Behind this system is a large ridge of high pressure which will dominate the eastern Pacific and will be oriented from southwest to northeast with a ridge extending into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. A weak low will develop over the desert southwest, creating a northeast flow aloft and an off shore surface gradient. Above average temperatures will prevail next week. This will also usher in a prolonged period of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with light showers likely from Merced County north with a small chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers from Fresno County north. Mostly cloudy tonight and Wednesday morning in Kern and southeastern Tulare counties with clearing skies elsewhere. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with periods of rain late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning in Kern and Tulare Counties. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 71/43/71/44/74 | Reedley 73/44/73/45/74 | Dinuba 72/42/71/43/73 |
Porterville 74/43/71/43/75 | Lindsay 73/42/73/43/75 | Delano 74/45/69/44/75 |
Bakersfield 75/50/71/50/74 | Taft 72//52/68/52/71 | Arvin 74/47/70/49/75 |
Lamont 73/46/69/45/74 | Pixley 73/44/71/43/74 | Tulare 72/43/71/43/73 |
Woodlake 72/42/71/41/73 | Hanford 73/45/73/44/74 | Orosi 72/42/73/43/72 |
Seven Day Forecast
Friday
Mostly clear 42/75 |
Saturday
Pm rain 46/75 |
Sunday
Am rain 42/69 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/69 |
Two Week Outlook: March 22 through March 28: Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,
Rain: Light showers have spread as far south as Merced County as of the time of this writing. The southern portion of the cold front is falling apart as it moves on shore. Even so, a few light showers are possible as far south as Fresno County today with the south valley remaining dry. Expect dry weather tonight through Friday night.
A more substantial trough of low pressure will stretch from western Canada to southern California over the weekend. The trend on models the past few days is not whether it’s going to rain…it will…but the timing and amounts, which are still up in the air. For now, late Saturday well into Sunday seems to be the best guess. This is something we’ll simply have to tweak the next few days. Rainfall amounts north of Kern County should be in the quarter to one-third inch category with possibly as much as a half-inch. Lesser amounts can be expected along the west side and in Kern County due to the usual rain shadow. Once the back side of this system moves through, a prolonged period of dry weather appears likely as a large high will build off the Pacific coast with a ridge into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/31% Porterville, 98%/30%. Midafternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 90%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .99, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville .99, Delano 1.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 55, Delano 51. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44. Record Temperatures: 91/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2029 -94. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.79. Monthly .18 -.73
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.48. Monthly, .68 +.11
Average Temperature this month: 53.8 -1.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 7:08, Sunset, 7:07, hours of daylight, 11:57
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 74 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 77 7.59 71 10.62 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 86 6.89 73 9.50 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.88 65 6.50 72 9.03 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.24 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 66 5.54 67 8.22 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 86 3.43 56 6.14 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 90 2.10 43 4.83 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 123 1.62 44 3.65 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.26 62 5.50 55 10.07 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 75 6.38 65 9.89 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 60 6.75 64 10.58 13.32
Next report: March 15 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.