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Forecast

March 15, 2022/afternoon report

March 15, 2022

Even with a great deal of cloud cover, temperatures are still warming to near 70 at midday.  Doppler radar is showing a narrow band of light showers in western Fresno County which is probably where the cold front is. However, the band is weakening with time so only trace amounts of precipitation are expected, if that. The flow behind this system will initially be out of the northwest which, no doubt, will result in cloud cover damming up near the foothills of the Tehachapi Mountains and the Sierra Nevada in Tulare County. Clearing will be slow in Kern County and portions of Tulare County. It may be midday or so Wednesday before abundant sunshine returns. From Wednesday night through Friday night, a flat zone of high pressure will reside off the California coast with a series of weak disturbances moving into British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Some high clouds will be evident from time to time over central California, but little else. Modeling this afternoon continues to indicate a more significant system will move through central California Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. The timing issues have narrowed somewhat. It now appears late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, possibly into Sunday morning, will be the likeliest time for precipitation. Amounts will probably still be in the one-quarter to one-third of an inch along the east side of the valley with locally more. Lesser amounts can be expected along the west side and in Kern County where the usual rain shadow will be evident. It also still looks like a prolonged period of dry weather will begin Sunday night as a ridge of high pressure will develop over the eastern Pacific with a large ridge extending towards the northeast into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be a little slow to recover, though, as a northeast flow from central Canada will play a role, lowering temperatures to near seasonal but possibly well above average by late next week.

 

Forecast: Still a chance of sprinkles in Fresno County and northern Kings and Tulare Counties through early this evening. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County through at least mid-morning Wednesday with clearing skies elsewhere. Mostly clear skies Wednesday afternoon through Friday night with occasional high clouds from time to time. A chance of rain later Saturday afternoon, rain becoming likely Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Becoming mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

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Short Term:        

Madera 41/71/41/73 Reedley 43/73/44/74 Dinuba 41/73/43/73
Porterville 40/72/42/74 Lindsay 40/73/40/75 Delano 44/72/44/75
Bakersfield 50/70/50/75 Taft 52/69/53/72 Arvin 47/71/44/75
Lamont 48/73/44/75 Pixley 42/73/44/74 Tulare 42/73/42/74
Woodlake 43/73/44/73 Hanford 45/74/45/75 Orosi 41/72/43/74

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Friday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,

 

Rain:  Only a narrow band of light showers is showing up on radar, moving across northern Kings County and central Fresno County, as of the time of this writing. Otherwise, this event is now in the history books. Expect dry weather from tonight through Friday night.

 

It appears late Saturday afternoon through midmorning Sunday will be our best chance at precipitation as a considerably stronger trough moves through. If there’s a bulls-eye on this storm, it would be for Saturday night.

 

Dry weather will return by late Sunday and continue for the next seven days, at least, as a persistent ridge of high pressure takes over.

 

Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.

Next report: March 16