A good amount of high clouds continues to stream above central California this afternoon. Temperatures from Merced south are 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday while readings north of that mark are as much as 5 to 7 degrees lower than yesterday due to an intrusion of marine air through the delta. The marine layer is not deep enough to penetrate the central and south valley, thus readings there will be well into the 70s both today and tomorrow.
High pressure is beginning to shift eastward due to a developing trough of low pressure which stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to off shore southern California. This well advertised trough will move on shore Saturday. High resolution models are showing the dynamics weaking over central California due to a weak low developing over southern California. This may turn out to be one of those situations where northern and southern California pick up decent amounts of precipitation, robbing central California of the necessary dynamics for a significant precipitation event. Even so, wettest locations along the east side should pick up a quarter of an inch or so with lesser amounts elsewhere.
Temperatures over the weekend will drop to marginally below average as temperatures drop in association with the incoming trough. Models for next week appear almost summer-like. A strong high is projected to cover the eastern Pacific with a ridge running from southwest to northeast into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a northeast flow over central California. Downslope heating off the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains along with increasing pressure aloft will drive temperatures well into the 80s as early as Wednesday. Warmest locations could tease with the 90 degree mark Thursday and Friday.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night, leading to a chance of showers Saturday morning. Rain will be likely at times Saturday and Saturday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday morning. Clearing Sunday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday with a warming trend.
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Short Term:
Madera 40/75/47/65 | Reedley 41/76/47/66 | Dinuba 39/75/46/65 |
Porterville 39/77/46/66 | Lindsay 39/75/45/65 | Delano 41/77/47/66 |
Bakersfield 45/76/52/69 | Taft 52/73/55/70 | Arvin 45/77/47/68 |
Lamont 45/76/48/65 | Pixley 41/76/46/68 | Tulare 39/75/46/65 |
Woodlake 41/74/46/68 | Hanford 41/76/46/66 | Orosi 39/75/45/68 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph. winds late Friday night and Saturday morning will be out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Sunday will be mostly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, becoming light and variable Sunday night.
Rain: Somewhat of a split is showing up on models which will affect rainfall totals Saturday and Saturday night. A secondary low will develop over southern California, nudging the best dynamics into northern and southern California. Even so, most locations on the east side from a Porterville/Tipton line north should pick up between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with locally higher amounts. From western Merced County to Kings County, a tenth or two is likely with probably no more than .10 to .15 over the valley portion of kern County. A prolonged period of dry weather will begin Sunday and will last for at least a week, although some models are showing a trough moving through about the 28th.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.
Next report: March 18