A west/northwest flow is moving across the eastern Pacific and comes on shore into the Pacific Northwest and California. Weak disturbances continue to move into Washington and Oregon with higher level clouds moving into northern and central California. These clouds will be visible from time to time through Friday night. Rain is on the way from an elongated low pressure system which will extend from the parent low over Alaska with a trough extending southward along the west coast all the way to southern California.
Models still indicate rain will arrive Saturday afternoon, continuing at times through Saturday night. The back side of the trough should clear central California by early Sunday morning, so it now appears Sunday will be dry with another round of upslope clouds in Kern County and eastern Tulare County as a northwest flow moves down the valley and is lifted by the mountains.
Next week will be an entirely different story as a rapid warming trend will begin Monday. A very large high will cover the eastern Pacific and will build a ridge into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. This will create a northeast flow aloft into northern and central California. That, combined with increasing pressures aloft, will send temperatures well into the 80s possibly as early as Wednesday. Current model information suggests mid to upper 80s will be widespread Thursday and Friday of next week. I’m not going to mention the word “ninety” yet, but it may be a close call in some of the warmest locations Friday. Record high temperatures this time of year are in the low 90s.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. Mostly cloudy Saturday morning with a chance of showers. Rain becoming likely at times Saturday afternoon and night. Clearing Sunday with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain cloudy through most of the day Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/40/75/45/66 | Reedley 74/40/76/47/66 | Dinuba 73/39/75/45/65 |
| Porterville 75/40/76/47/67 | Lindsay 73/39/75/45/65 | Delano 75/40/76/47/66 |
| Bakersfield 76/47/77/51/69 | Taft 73/52/74/55/68 | Arvin 76/44/77/47/67 |
| Lamont 75/44/76/48/67 | Pixley 74/40/75/46/68 | Tulare 73/39/75/45/65 |
| Woodlake 73/39/75/46/65 | Hanford 74/42/75/46/66 | Orosi 73/39/75/46/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/68 |
Monday
Mostly clear 36/63 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 40/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/81 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 46/87 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30: Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 mph through Friday. Winds Friday night will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts from Fresno County north. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible, decreasing to 8 to 15 mph Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, becoming light and variable Sunday night.
Rain: A few showers could reach into the valley as early as Saturday morning, however the main event with this storm will arrive Saturday afternoon and night. Dry weather will quickly return Sunday with dry weather continuing for all of next week. Rainfall amounts from Saturday morning through Saturday night on the east side of the valley from Porterville/Tipton north could potentially add up to a quarter to a third of an inch. Locally half inch totals are not out of the realm of possibility. Rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County will reduce potential amounts there to roughly a quarter of an inch. The valley portion of Kern County will probably pick up a tenth or two.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/45% Porterville, 100%/44%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.16, Parlier 1.00, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.03, Porterville .99, Delano 1.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 57, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 56, Delano 52. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45. Record Temperatures: 90/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2039 -101. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.92. Monthly .18 -.86
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.55. Monthly, .68 +.04
Average Temperature this month: 54.5 -1.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 7:05, Sunset, 7:09, hours of daylight, 12:01
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 75 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 77 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 78 7.60 71 10.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 86 6.95 72 9.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.91 65 6.80 74 9.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.47 18 8.37 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 65 6.02 72 8.35 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 85 3.86 62 6.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 89 2.32 47 4.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 122 1.62 44 3.69 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.26 61 5.50 54 10.21 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 73 6.53 65 10.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 59 6.82 63 10.75 13.32
Next report: March 17 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.