March 18, 2022
Upper level high pressure is right above us this morning but is shifting eastward. The balloon sounding above Oakland this morning indicated a freezing level of 11,000 feet which is the highest we’ve seen it in a while. With a warm bubble of subsiding air above us, and mostly clear skies, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. A fast moving trough of low pressure will move through central California Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Models are not as impressive on this system as they were a few days ago. Even so, measurable rain is anticipated throughout the valley and, of course, over the mountain areas where snow will fall down to roughly 4,500 feet. Significant pressure differences will set up late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as pressure falls over the interior west and rise sharply off shore. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph will be possible, especially tomorrow evening. Strong upper level high pressure off shore will build inland Sunday for the beginning of a long period of dry weather. Models still indicate mid 80s for this coming Thursday and Friday with lower 80s Wednesday. This is more reminiscent of late spring weather as air masses are now battling one another for dominance of the weather. Models do show a trough of low pressure moving through around the 28th which is a week from Monday. However, it’s much too early to call for precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. A chance of showers beginning late morning Saturday.. periods of showers Saturday afternoon through the late evening hours then becoming mostly to partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday morning. Clearing Sunday afternoon with the exception of southeastern Tulare County and Kern County which will remain mostly cloudy into Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Friday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 76/45/66/44/63 | Reedley 77/46/66/44/65 | Dinuba 76/46/67/44/66 |
| Porterville 77/45/67/42/63 | Lindsay 76/45/67/41/63 | Delano 78/48/66/44/64 |
| Bakersfield 77/53/68/47/62 | Taft 75/58/68/48/61 | Arvin 78/48/66/47/66 |
| Lamont 77/48/66/46/65 | Pixley 76/47/67/44/63 | Tulare 75/45/65/43/63 |
| Woodlake 76/44/66/43/65 | Hanford 77/47/67/44/65 | Orosi 75/43/66/43/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 38/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 41/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/86 |
Friday
Mostly clear 47/86 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30: Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.
March: The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.
March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 10 mph today. Winds late tonight and Saturday morning will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Later Saturday afternoon and night, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. wind gusts to near 30 mph will be possible, diminishing late Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally less than 10 mph.
Rain: The chance for mainly light showers will begin to increase from mid to late morning Saturday, becoming likely Saturday afternoon through the late evening hours. The system will be weaker than previously thought and the fact that it’s’ a fast mover will keep rainfall totals fairly light. Blended model information is indicating .11 at Fresno and .23 at Porterville. Rainfall amounts from a tenth to a quarter of an inch seem plausible along the east side from Porterville north. One tenth to .15 is possible along the west side of Merced County down to Kings County with less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will begin after midnight Saturday night and will continue for at least a week thereafter. Models are showing a trough of low pressure moving through around the 28th. However, it’s much too early to think about adding rain to the forecast.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/33% Porterville, 97%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .99, Arvin 1.09, Orange Cove 1.02, Porterville .99, Delano 1.02. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 53, Parlier 57, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 53. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45. Record Temperatures: 87/32
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2045 -103. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.43 or -2.98. Monthly .18 -.92
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.35 or -.59. Monthly, .68 -.00
Average Temperature this month: 54.9 -0.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 7:04, Sunset, 7:10, hours of daylight, 12:04
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 75 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 76 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 76 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 73 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 77 7.60 70 10.80 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 85 6.95 72 9.67 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.91 64 6.80 74 9.20 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.47 17 8.43 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.43 65 6.02 72 8.41 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.29 84 3.86 61 6.28 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.35 88 2.32 47 4.94 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 122 1.62 44 3.70 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.26 61 5.50 54 10.28 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 73 6.53 64 10.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.35 59 6.82 63 10.84 13.32
Next report: March 18 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.