March 24, 2022
Early summer conditions have arrived this season. Yesterday, Porterville and Lemoore each hit 90 degrees and Bakersfield 91. All other locations were in the upper 80s. similar conditions can be expected today with readings dropping perhaps a degree or two Saturday. Strong upper level high pressure stretches from the eastern Pacific eastward all the way to the Rocky Mountain region. With warm subsiding air and weak downslope heating off the mountains, temperature records will easily be shattered today.
Now we turn to a low pressure system which will approach the northern and central coast Sunday, possibly spreading precipitation into the valley as early as late Sunday afternoon or evening. Models place the center of circulation over southern San Luis Obispo County Monday afternoon, meaning the pool of unstable air will be right above us during the time of maximum daytime heating. Typically, spring thunderstorms on the valley floor occur with cold storms out of the Gulf of Alaska. This system is not that cold, however, thunderstorms are still possible Monday afternoon and evening. With the center of circulation in close proximity to the valley, some decent rain fall amounts are certainly possible. The low will move into the southern Great Basin and desert southwest Tuesday night, ending precipitation. The high will dominate the pattern for several days. In fact, the first week in April currently appears dry.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear and unusually warm through Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a chance of showers late Sunday afternoon and night. Periods of showers Monday and Monday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A slight chance of showers early Tuesday morning. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/49/87/50/87 | Reedley 89/50/88/51/87 | Dinuba 88/48/87/48/87 |
| Porterville 90/51/89/51/88 | Lindsay 89/48/88/49/88 | Delano 90/51/89/50/89 |
| Bakersfield 90/58/88/60/88 | Taft 86/63/85/64/85 | Arvin 91/65/90/64/89 |
| Lamont 90/54/89/53/88 | Pixley 88/50/88/51/87 | Tulare 88/48/87/48/87 |
| Woodlake 89/48/88/47/86 | Hanford 89/50/88/51/88 | Orosi 88/48/87/48/87 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Pm showers 52/85 |
Monday
Periods of showers 48/79 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 44/67 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 43/70 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 44/76 |
Two Week Outlook: March 30 through April 5: This model shows a trough of low pressure being more dominant during this period. Temperatures will fall to somewhat below average with a chance of showers.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to12 mph. during the night and morning, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, continuing Sunday night. Winds Monday will be generally out of the west or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 20 mph near showers.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Saturday night. Some models show showers moving into the valley as early as Sunday afternoon. The target date, however, remains Monday. some models are placing the storm’s center of circulation near southern San Luis Obispo County Monday afternoon. With the center in close proximity to the south valley, the chance for locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms is certainly there. My guesstimate is that, especially in the south valley and along the east side, precipitation amounts will total between .25 and .50. Locally more is possible, especially if your location gets hit by a thunderstorm. The chance for small hail is there, however the chance is decreased this time around because this storm is fairly mild. Dry weather will return by Tuesday morning with a dry pattern setting up for more than likely the first week in April.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/30% Porterville, 98%/23%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.14, Parlier .94, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove .93, Porterville .95, Delano 98. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 54, Parlier 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 56. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 85/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2081 -107. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.30. Monthly .20 -1.24
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.60. Monthly, .87 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 55.4 -0.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:56, Sunset, 7:14, hours of daylight, 12:18
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 89 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 91 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 87 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 75 7.84 70 11.13 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 82 7.12 71 9.98 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 66 6.97 73 9.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 8.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 62 6.44 74 8.75 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 81 4.13 63 6.54 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 88 2.58 50 5.14 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 119 1.62 43 3.79 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 60 5.70 54 10.63 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 71 6.73 64 10.57 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 56 6.86 61 11.30 13.32
Next report: March 24 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.