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Forecast

March 24, 2022/afternoon report

March 24, 2022

Temperatures at most locations are roughly where they were yesterday at this time. As of midday, they’re moving into the lower 80s. no doubt, like yesterday, hottest locations will hit the 90 degree mark. The short term forecast is a no brainer as strong upper level high pressure will stretch from the eastern Pacific, across California and into the interior west. This is driving temperatures to early summer type readings. The main challenge will be a low which will approach the central coast Sunday afternoon. Showers will begin to overspread the central coastal areas by Sunday evening and into the valley sometime Sunday night. Most model information this afternoon depicts the storm’s center of circulation right over the southern San Joaquin Valley during the time of maximum daytime heating. Assuming breaks occur in the overcast, the ground unevenly heats from place to place, allowing warm currents of air to rise skyward. This results in showers and the chance for thunderstorms. Quantitative precipitation estimates from high resolution models indicate heaviest rains with this event will occur over the mountains of southern California from southern San Luis Obispo County to San Diego County where 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible. Of interest also is the heaviest rains in the valley this time around could be in the south valley closer to the center of circulation. At any rate, there is potential with this system for some decent rainfall amounts. Models show the back side of this system clearing the valley Tuesday morning, so it may be midday Tuesday before we’re finally out of the woods. Models show upper level high pressure building in behind this system with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s later next week, which is certainly more seasonal.

 

Forecast: Other than a few high clouds dotting the skies from time to time, it will be mostly clear and warm through Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon. Showers likely Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Periods of showers Monday through Monday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Tuesday morning, mainly before roughly 9:00am. Clearing Tuesday afternoon but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County until Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

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Short Term:        

Madera 49/87/50/86 Reedley 50/88/51/87 Dinuba 48/87/49/87
Porterville 49/89/50/88 Lindsay 47/88//48/87 Delano 51/89/51/88
Bakersfield 58/88/61/87 Taft 62/85/63/85 Arvin 52/89/53/88
Lamont 53/88/53/87 Pixley 49/87/49/86 Tulare 47/87/48/86
Woodlake 48/87/47/87 Hanford 50/88/51/87 Orosi 48/88/47/87

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at around 5 to12 mph. during the night and morning, winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, continuing Sunday night. Winds Monday will be generally out of the west or northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 20 mph near showers.

 

Rain:  Dry weather will continue through Sunday morning. Rain will begin to move on shore along the central coast Sunday afternoon. This storm is not particularly fast moving, so it may be later Sunday night before rain begins to fall over the valley. Monday and Monday night are still looking to be the best window of opportunity for anything significant. Heaviest rain for this event will be over the mountain and coastal areas of southern California from southern San Luis Obispo County southward to the Mexico border. Interestingly enough, the heaviest rain in the valley may occur in Kern, Tulare, and Kings Counties as the right-front quadrant of the storm moves through. Daytime heating may trigger some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. For now, it looks like the south valley could pick up between .25 and .50 with locally more if isolated thunderstorms break out. From Fresno County north, my current belief is between .10 and .15 will be picked up. Some showers may last into the morning commute Tuesday as the back side of the low pushes into Nevada. otherwise, expect dry weather from later Tuesday through the rest of next week, at least. the new two week model is predicting dry weather for the first week of April.

 

Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.

Next report: March 25