March 26, 2022
Strong upper level high pressure has shifted further south with the center of circulation over northwest Mexico this morning. Even so, pressures are still high over California with the freezing level at 12,300 feet. That’s down a bit from 48 hours ago, but still high by the standards of late March. Readings today will be below the 90 degree mark…still about 15 degrees above average. We continue to monitor an intensifying storm well off the California coast which is moving eastward. Showers will begin to spread along the central coast Sunday evening then move into the valley after roughly midnight Sunday night.
The parameters on model information this morning indicate this could potentially be a good rain event for central California. High resolution quantitative precipitation estimates show more than .50 of rain in the central valley with one to one and a half inches in the foothills and mountains. Most models bring the center of circulation just west of Monterey by Monday evening then southeastward through southcentral California Monday night. From there, it’s expected to move into southern Arizona by Tuesday. We are in our springtime thunderstorm season in the valley and it looks like we have a shot at isolated storms Monday afternoon and evening.
Relatively cold, unstable air will be moving overhead, especially during the mid to late afternoon hours. With the higher sun angle, currents of warm air will move skyward and interact with that cold air. This will form potential thunderstorms. Don’t be surprised to hear reports of small hail Monday afternoon and evening. Showers will continue into the morning commute Tuesday. Upper level high pressure will then build in from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday, dominating the pattern for the remainder of the week. even though this will be a dry pattern, temperatures won’t’ stray far from late March averages.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight with occasional high clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Showers Sunday night after midnight. Periods of showers Monday and Monday night with a chance of showers through roughly 9:00am Tuesday. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Clearing Tuesday afternoon, but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and eastern Tulare Counties through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 85/50/80/52/65 | Reedley 86/50/82/52/66 | Dinuba 84/51/80/52/65 |
Porterville 86/52/80/53/66 | Lindsay 85/50/83/52/66 | Delano 87/54/81/52/66 |
Bakersfield 87/57/85/56/69 | Taft 84/60/80/56/66 | Arvin 87/54/84/55/69 |
Lamont 87/57/84/54/70 | Pixley 86/51/83/50/67 | Tulare 85/49/83/50/67 |
Woodlake 85/50/80/51/65 | Hanford 86/52/80/52/65 | Orosi 85/50/80/50/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
Tuesday
Am showers 44/67 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 42/67 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 42/72 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/71 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Two Week Outlook: April 2 through April 8: This model indicates a dome of high pressure will be right along the Pacific coast, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this period will be very low.
April: April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.
April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.
Wind Discussion: Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 12 mph. Winds Sunday and Sunday night will become out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Monday and Monday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible, mainly in western Merced, Kings, and Fresno Counties. Winds will die off by late Tuesday with light winds returning Tuesday night.
Rain: If models are correct, we should end up with a pretty decent rain event from Sunday night through Monday night. A strengthening Pacific storm will take a path right through central California with the center of circulation being just west of Monterey by Monday evening and near Yuma by Tuesday morning. Models haven’t changed much in indicating one to two inches of rain over the mountains of southern California and as much as an inch and a half in our own foothills of the southern Sierra Nevada. Blended model information indicates Porterville could record .59 with near half inch totals over the valley portion of Kern County. Lighter amounts are projected from Fresno County north, however projections are a bit higher than earlier estimated and now total a third of an inch. Showers will continue Monday night with some possible lingering showers in the south valley before about 9:00am Tuesday. The remainder of Tuesday will be dry as will be the remainder of next week.
Frost: Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 84%/37% Porterville, 96%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.22, Parlier 1.02, Arvin 1.19, Orange Cove 1.04, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.02. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 59, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano 58. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/45. Record Temperatures: 87/34
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 15 +15. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.45 or -3.41. Monthly .20 -1.35
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 4.54 or -.67. Monthly, .87 -.08
Average Temperature this month: 57.1 +0.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:52, Sunset, 7:17, hours of daylight, 12:22
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 85 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 86 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 89 / 59 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 89 / 55 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 86 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.36 74 7.84 70 11.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.23 82 7.12 71 10.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 6.31 66 6.97 73 9.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.55 17 8.87 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.45 62 6.44 73 8.86 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.30 80 4.13 62 6.64 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.54 87 2.58 50 5.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 118 1.62 42 3.82 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.41 60 5.70 53 10.75 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.55 71 6.73 63 10.70 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 56 6.86 60 11.44 13.32
Next report: March 26 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.